A very strong field of 2000m runners will line up in the Group One QE11 Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday in what is shaping up as the most difficult race of the three group one events on the card for punters to find the winner.
2018 winner, the enigmatic Pakistan Star, aims to become the second horse in the history of the race to win the race back to back joining Japanese winner Eishin Preston (2002/3, however local hero Viva Pataca also won the race twice but three years apart in 2007 and 2010.
Meanwhile likely favourite Exultant will be attempting to improve the records of favourites in the race with just three being successful since it became a 2000m event in 1997.
Timeform ratings analysis for the races predicts a close finish but with a slight leaning to Pakistan Star.
Formerly prepared by Tony Cruz, Pakistan Star bolted home in this race last year then followed up with an easy victory in the champions and Chater Cup over 2400m. Then the run of poor form set it finishing out of the frame at his next six starts culminating in a switch in trainer to Paul O’Sullivan after the Hong Kong Gold Cup failure last December.
In just one run for his new stable, Pakistan Star impressed with a solid closing third behind local champion Beauty Generation in the Chairmans Trophy over 1600m, the same race that was used last year before winning the QE11 Stakes.
It is also worth noting that Pakistan Star was an unlucky second in the 2017 QE11 Stakes behind Japanese winner Neorealism in a messy run race.
Both runs in the QE11 Stakes have returned a Timeform rating of 126 – easily the best rating of any runner in the field at 2000m.
According to reports, Pakistan Star has been much more settled in his work leading into Sunday with all signs positive for a return to top form. If he does, Pakistan Star is easily the horse to beat.
Emerging stayer Exultant comes into the race off a 70-day break but trainer Tony Cruz has his charge ready to pick up where he left off last campaign that ended with a courageous win in the Group One Hong Kong Gold Cup over this distance in mid-February.
That was his third consecutive win that commenced with a narrow victory in the International Hong Kong Vase where he defeated Japanese filly Lys Gracieux who opposes him again today.
Apart from champion rider Zac Purton, the advantage Exultant has is his ability to be ridden to the conditions of how the race plays out. That makes him a dangerous opponent.
Japanese trio of Win Bright, Deirdre and Lys Gracieux all have weight adjusted Timeform ratings to feature prominently.
Win Bright comes into the race as a solid Group two performer back home but does bring some excellent form lines to the race via his last two winning performances at Nakayama.
Last time out he defeated Deirdre by four lengths in the Nakayama Kinen, that filly then running a brave fourth in the Dubai Turf behind Champion filly Almond Eye.
Deidre was runner up to Glorious Forever in the Hong Kong Cup last December so all the form ties in for this afternoon’s race.
Lys Gracieux has also raced well in Hong Kong previously running a close second to Exultant in the Hong Kong Vase but clearly found the 2400m a shade far on the day.
The 2000m here will suit her much better and she was tuned up for this race with a second placing to Danon Premium over 2000m at chukyo 49 days ago.
Both Lys Gracieux and Deirdre are classic performers at three and look well placed again.
Hong Kong Derby winner Furore steps up to group company for the first time but he should not be out of his depth. Derby winners invariably race well in this event and he still has more to give on that winning effort.
Enjoy a great race.
