Statistically, Singapore champion trainer Michael Clements is short of one runner to exactly have a one-in-two chance of winning the $1 million Group 1 Singapore Gold Cup (2000m) this Sunday.

Of the capacity field of 16 runners, seven come under his polish – in descending order of ratings, Top Knight , Big Hearted , Ocean Crossing, Elite Incredible , So Hi Class , Trumpy  and On Line.

The Zimbabwean-born handler actually could have amazingly fielded half the race, but Prosperous Return, for a long time in the Gold Cup mix, was pulled out at the last minute.

Still, Clements is aware that racing is not a mathematical game, and the algorithms don't always follow a 1+1=2 model.

He would be delighted if his theoretically near-even-money odds could mean he had one hand on the glistening trophy on display on Sunday, but with other top-notch gallopers like Lim's Lightning, Hard Too Think and Katak in the line-up, a more realistic quote would be closer to 3-1.

Asking Clements, who won the time-honoured handicap race for the first time last year after 23 years in Singapore, who had the best chance among his seven, could be akin to asking who's his favourite child - but he actually did single one out.

Rather unsurprisingly, it's the title defender himself who "wins his heart", Big Hearted.

But his opponents are warned – and his fans will be all agog. He didn't write off any of the other six as a no-hoper.

"Big Hearted is last year's winner. He's a proven stayer, I think he's my best chance," he said of his seven-time winning five-year-old by Hallowed Crown.

"He's only 3 ½ kilos worse off for the win. I'm also hoping we get a bit of rain like last year.

"We've been hoping for rain at his last couple of starts, but we never got it. He's still been running well.

"The Raffles Cup (1600m) was too short, but in the QEII Cup (Queen Elizabeth II Cup), I think Simon (Kok Wei Hoong) did leave it a bit late.

"He's a horse who takes some time to get going, and to be fair, he also got held up at a crucial stage before turning for home.

"The race just didn't pan out the way we wanted in the middle sections of the race.

"Still, the horse to beat remains Hard Too Think. He's also a proven stayer and he comes in well-in at the handicap with his level of ability."

Up against such formidable foe, Clements has taken no chances by enlisting one of the best pairs of hands available. Former three-time Singapore champion jockey Manoel Nunes, who made a winning Singapore comeback last week after four years of absence (except for a one-day cameo on 2019), takes the reins on Big Hearted.

"Manoel has worked on him a couple of times, in his slow work as I've already got one of my riders who knows him well when it comes to speed gallops," said Clements, who interestingly, teamed up for only two feature wins with the Brazilian ace in the past – Kiwi Karma in the Group 3 CECF Prestige Classic (1400m) and the Group 3 Dester Singapore Three-Year-Old Sprint (1200m) in 2015.

"Manoel told me the horse felt great, and was very good in his action. He seemed pretty happy with what he had underneath him."

The second-worst alley in 17 is not the best, but neither is it a speed bump to Clements. Last year, Big Hearted struck gold from barrier No 14.

"It's not a good barrier, but his style of racing is getting back. He takes some time to come across," he said.

"If anything, an inside draw won't work for him as he will get stuck on the rails. He's a horse who runs his best with his sweeping runs on the outside.

"In saying this, my other horses are all in great shape. You can make a case for each one of them."

Obviously, Top Knight, his top-rater on 97 points, can't be too far in his calculations even if win No 10 from the Zoustar six-year-old, who also races in the same interests as Big Hearted, Thai outfit Falcon Racing, has been long time coming – since his Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (1800m) win in October 2020.

"I would say Top Knight is in a similar place in the handicap as last year's Gold Cup," he said.

"He ran great last year (closing third to Big Hearted), and I couldn't have wished to have him any better the way he is going now.

"He has come on from his last run. Again, he would also like some rain, and if he gets a decent pace, you can be sure he'll run into the race.

"He definitely has a chance."

And if he had to pick a roughie who could come from left field, he can throw a handkerchief over at least three, including the two South American-breds.

"Trumpy gets more or less the same weight as last year. He's also in a bit better condition than last year," he said of his Argentinian-bred who finally opened his Kranji account at his 13th attempt a month ago.

"Elite Incredible (the other Argentinian-bred) just got beat by Trumpy at their last race. He ran a really good race, too.

"He's proven at the trip and has run in many Group races. With only 50kgs on his back, if he gets the right run in front, he can just keep rolling.

"I know On Line just made it after his last win (Class 3 race over) 1600m two weeks ago, and looks a bit outclassed, but he's the bottom weight, and he's drawn one. You never know."

Finding jockeys in the Singapore Gold Cup is often tricky given lightweight jockeys are not a dime a dozen, let alone for so many horses, but Clements can be happy with the "Magnificent Seven" he has assembled.

Besides Nunes, he has booked stable regular Louis-Philippe Beuzelin on Top Knight, the in-form Mohd Zaki on Ocean Crossing, his trusty former apprentice jockey Shafrizal Saleh on So Hi Class, John Sundradas on Elite Incredible, Oscar Chavez who sticks solid with Trumpy after guiding him to his first win, and veteran jockey Saifudin Ismail on On Line.

As for Prosperous Return, Clements said a race as testing as the Singapore Gold Cup might be one bridge too far for the Tivic Stable-owned Fighting Sun four-year-old, who has already acquitted himself exceptionally well for a first prep with four wins up to a mile in nine starts.

"He's had a pretty tough campaign for a young horse. He's never been exposed to such a race, the 2000m at this level is beyond his best at this stage," said Clements.

"I also feel he has come to the end of his preparation and I didn't want to put him under any pressure at this stage of his career.

"He's having a break and we'll bring him back next year for similar feature races when he's more seasoned."