This starts in Australia at 3.30am Eastern Australian Times with the Juvenile Fillies
Bob Baffert's Indian Blessing is the morning line favourite at 11/4 with his other runner Cry and Catch Me have been scratched. Proud Spell, Izarra, A To The Croft and Grace Anatomy are the possibles.
The Juvenile for the colts has the unbeaten War Pass as 5/2 Morning Line favourite. He's drawn well and has been impressive in his wins. Wicked Style won the Futurity but has drawn out in the car park and will have to get a really lucky run. We like Tale of Ekati (the owner Charles Fipke discovered the Ekati diamond mine in Canada and it is a fascinating tale) and Pyro. Dixie Chatter has been scratched.
The filly and mare Turf has another unbeaten runner as morning line favourite – Nashoba's Key. This will be her 8th start so a nice record and she's drawn well. This is where the European horses start to come in and Henry Cecil's Passage of Time has been aimed at this and can run on anything and is around 7/2. Wait a While and Flower Bowl winner Lahudood both would want firm ground. Simply Perfect has got an awful draw and also would not want it too wet. We therefore think Honey Ryder at the UK price of 7/1 as distinct from the morning line quote of 9/2 could be value and the 3/1 on offer for Nashoba's Key is attractive.
The Sprint is usually an All-American affair with Forego Stakes winner Midnight Lute well drawn and around 2/1. This is a West Coast- East Coast race and here the West Coasters seem to have the edge, with Smokey Stover and Greg's Gold also in the more fancied.
The Mile has another awful draw for Excellent Art but Johnny Murtagh has been working on a plan and we will have to see if he can carry it out. We think After Market is good value at 5/1 in the UK and there will be local interest here in Host, a son of Hussonet. Jeremy may not like the going abd we are not sure if it will have much effect on Nobiz like Shobiz, and Trippi's Storm is one that has been firming in the market.
The Distaff has got the supplemented Ginger Punch as the second favourite at 7/2 with Indian Vale at 3/1 has drawn post 10 – not the best gate. We also like Lady Joanne at 6/1 in US, 13/2 UK – watch the market here. Lear's Princess is also fancied at around 5/1, a similar quote to Unbridled Lady but from gate 11 it will be tough. Monmouth is a small course with tight bends and the high numbers are really up against it.
The Breeders' Cup Turf is where we see Arc and everything else winner Dylan Thomas line up. His run in the Arc was as near to perfect as you can get and he took care of Red Rocks in the Champion Stakes, although Brian Meehan says Red Rocks was being set for this race. English Channel likes the track and has won top races here and does appear to be on song but if all goes well Dylan should notch up another memorable G1.
The Classic is – well – classic. The 1-2-3 from this year's Kentucky Derby are all here but it is older horse Lawyer Ron who holds the call at 5/2, with Curlin and Street Sense following at 3/1 and Any Given Saturday 4/1. Europe is represented by George Washington who so far is at double figures. Now if the really good George turned up he could give this a bit of a shake but the chances are not so good for that and also this is on dirt. It's a really great way to finish the meeting as the top four in the betting have drawn the 1-4 gates and it all may come down to tactics, the rain and fate.
