We've been on Incentivise since way back and are not to be put off.

Should he win he will provide a number of first – the first horse with a name starting with "I" to win, the horse with the most weight since Carbine, the horse with the shortest starting price since Phar Lap, the first to win the Caulfield – Melbourne Cup double since Ethereal etc.

But we think this horse is special.  Yes, it is a very ordinary field really but that often is the case in the Cup which is after all a handicap.  He comes into this on the highest rating in the field and while he has drawn 16 he came from the carpark in the Caulfield Cup and we trust Brett Prebble to get him into a good position at the right time.

As far as the opposition goes, Twilight Payment is defending his title at the age of 9 which would be a record.  Recent history of the race favours 4yo and 5yo. Joseph O'Brien is here which is a good sign but is it enough? 

Spanish Mission is the only true raider this year, coming from Andrew Balding's yard and top jockey Craig Williams has the ride.  Much is being made of his leg problem last week but it seems it was just a minor infection and we don't think it is a problem.  Much is also being made of the fact that he was just beaten by Stradivarius at York in August but there were only 4 runners in that race and Stradivarius has been showing his age since then.  He could well be a place horse here but we don't think he can win unless Incentivise gets into traffic problems.

A horse that we think has a very good chance of placing is Delphi, which until June this year was with Aidan O'Brien in Ireland.  He won the St Leger Trial in Ireland and since coming here won the Herbert Power and ignore his run in the Caulfield Cup – he's better than that and he's got gate 3 and Damien Oliver on board to help his cause.

Floating Artist got in at horse 22.  His new trainers (Maher-Eustace) have plotted a very clever path to this race so that he has collected some good results while being out of the glare of the bigger races.  He used to be in the UK with Richard Hannon but has shown a real liking for Australia since arriving and is in a top stable. 

Verry Ellegant is a top class mare and deserves a shot at this but it probably isn't her best distance.  Her jockey J Mac is in fantastic form and if she is ever to do it this would be it. 

There are a few others that we could mention such as Tralee Rose, The Chosen One and Sir Lucan but we think Incentivise and a combination of the above runners may help buy the Champagne.