Historical Analysis of the Emirates (Mackinnon) Stakes
Is the Mackinnon Stks the race it once was from a Melbourne Cup point of view? Entrants often used the race as their final hit out for the Tuesday.
Sometimes their runs were slashing wins like Let’s Elope, Empire Rose or Rogan Josh while others required greater inspection such as Viewed, Kensei or Subzero.
However as a form line to the Melbourne Cup the last horse to do the double was Rogan Josh. See if we can find the 2016 winner.
Watch Let's Elope cement Cup favouritism with her Mackinnon win
PROFILING THE RACE
o The last Cox Plate winner to complete double before So You Think was 20 years ago - Better Loosen Up. There were 3 in quick succession before him (Dulcify, Rising Prince, Rubiton).
o Barriers have been of little importance.
o Sydney has won 6 of the last 14 runnings.
o Bart Cummings won 11 Mackinnons, Gai Waterhouse has four now herself.
o Mostly favoured runners to the fore except the odd bolt from the blue like Sirmione or La Bella Dama.
o Before Sirmione’s late charge and Happy Trails having last shot, most Mackinnons have been won by those on or near the pace/fence.
o Mares don’t have a good record with only La Bella Dama (’01), Champagne (’98), Let’s Elope (’91), Horlicks (’89) & Empire Rose (’88) winning in the last 40 years.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (3 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $12.50
o Breakdown of winners - 8 geldings & 2 entires
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Cox Plate (7), Caulfield Cup (2), Epsom Hcp (1)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 4, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 2:03.56
Margin: 0.5L, Track: Slow (5), Starters: 132nd: Rising Romance (57.0kg), 3rd: Contributer (59.0kg)
Review: Yet again the Mackinnon Stakes failed to have a single Cup runner so maybe it has simply become a major G1 race as the prize money suggests. On a very leaderish track and after backing up from the Cox Plate, the French horse went to the front and was allowed to control it.
Much like Side Glance’s win, he rolled along then tried to up the tempo. He was tackled and clearly headed at the 300m mark but kept fighting and regained the lead drawing away late. There were unlucky runners like Magic Artist but honours to the import with big name owners.
Barrier: 12, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 2:02.28
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 142nd: He’s Your Man (59.0kg), 3rd: Farraaj (59.0kg)
Review: What a grand old horse Happy Trails is. He had won a Turnbull and Emirates and now another of Flemington’s G1s in the Mackinnon. In a good edition following a brutal Cox Plate, this old boy loved the back up.
He sat out the back but that was by design not like the week before when he missed the kick. Oliver tracked up the speed into the bend as Farraaj was three wide in a fantastic effort.
It came down to Oliver and Moreira over the concluding stages but the local just got his head out to win. The second horse ran so bravely too.
Barrier: 6, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 2:03.59
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 92nd: Dear Demi (59.0kg), 3rd: Moriarty (59.0kg)
Review: We’ve seen the international horses do so well in the handicaps but none really in the WFA contests. They also don’t like to back them up. Well Side Glance had run fourth in a Dubai World Cup and jetsetted around the world.
After sitting behind the speed in the Cox Plate, he was ridden forward to lead in a slowly run race by Jamie Spencer who was also out here to ride Dunaden in the Cup. They walked until the 600m but many of the rivals wouldn’t make a move.
He wound them up and when some were disappointing around him, he kicked clear as Dear Demi got up the fence. The whip action was foreign to many onlookers but it did the job.
