Historical Analysis of the Queensland Oaks

QUEENSLAND OAKS - G1 2400m

The Queensland version of the Oaks has been a guide to producing a few future quality horses.

Ethereal and Arctic Scent won Caulfield Cups later that year (of course Ethereal won an even bigger race). It’s also a race for the blueblood fillies as there have been some legendary bloodlines taking out the G1 staying feature.

Any more Caulfield Cup winners we can find? Or another Winx?

PROFILING THE RACE

o In some runnings, there’s been a distinct lack of black type winning form for recent Oaks winners. Makes you think it’s more of a consolation prize. A lot of the form lead ins are either placings or class grade staying events. Should it be made into a Mares Staying Championship to end the season?

o Barriers haven’t been that important but that can depend on track conditions.

o Interstate and NZ trainers have had a field day. Mon Mekki was the only local horse to win for years before Tinto.

o The Zabeel and Danehill influence is strong. Last 20 Zabeel has 4 wins, Danehill two.

o Some of the great bloodlines have been re-established with the Denise’s Joy lineage from Joie Denise, Naturalism’s sister Crystal Palace winning and Romanee Conti was a top quality mare before producing Ethereal.

o Winx won over 2200m at Doomben but had a ‘nice’ next months.

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $9.50.

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Doomben Roses (7), Class 2 (1), Sunshine Coast Guineas (1), Open 3yo (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2016 - PROVOCATIVE 3f (Zabeel x Betwixt) ($7)

Jockey: Leith Innes, Trainer: Tony Pike

Barrier: 16, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:32.17

Margin: 3L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 18

2nd: Ambience (56.5kg), 3rd: Falkenberg (56.5kg)

Review: Sometimes a win is as good as it looks. There were issues with the Eagle Farm track at its first meeting back for two years and also after the rain the week prior, but the kiwi filly just annihilated them.

It wasn’t the same sort of win as Ethereal’s Oaks but more like her Caulfield Cup. From the draw Provocative went back to near last but was safely away doing no work. The pressure went on a long way from home.

Innes was able to tack onto that and then get rolling five and six deep into a part of the track which was where the winners came on the day. That Zabeel blood kicked in and she bolted away over the last furlong.

2015 - WINX 3f (Street Cry x Vegas Showgirl) ($1.90 fav)

Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 10, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:14.09

Margin: 3.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 16

2nd: Ungrateful Ellen (56.5kg), 3rd: Imperial Lass (56.5kg)

Review: Winx had put her cards on the table during the Autumn with a powerful win in the Phar Lap and a tough run in the Oaks when not well ridden.

After a freshen she came from hiyacky to win the Sunshine Coast Guineas at the mile and then stepped up to the Oaks which was reduced to 2200m with the race at Doomben as Eagle Farm was being reconstructed.

Bowman had her beyond midfield but travelling well. Once she was into the clear she got to the outside and the race was over in a blink. She thrashed them.

Would she go on to be a good WFA horse, a handicapper or just another champ of the mares races? I think we know the answer.

2014 - TINTO 3f (Red Dazzler x Truly Brave) ($8)

Jockey: Timothy Bell, Trainer: Rex Lipp

Barrier: 5, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:29.46

Margin: 1.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 18

2nd: Arabian Gold (56.5kg), 3rd: Sister Souss (56.5kg)

Review: So often the Doomben Roses is the lead up race to note the most for the Oaks. It’s produced nine of the last ten winners. And while Arabian Gold was a dominant winner at Doomben, Tinto made good late ground.

Once more the favourite landed the one barrier but this time Tinto was able to be ridden much closer. They were near each other in the run but coming to the turn, Shinn gambled on an inside split while Bell came around them.

The fav ambled up and looked the winner but with a combination of a drying track and not running the 2400m, she was no match up the last furlong to Tinto. It gave Bell his first G1 and the three feature winners on the day with the Guineas and the QTC Cup.