There has been a notable drop-off in the output of leading Melbourne trainer Mark Kavanagh’s stable.
Kavanagh, who was training at a strike-rate around 20-percent through 2009-2011, has been striking at just 8-percent in 2014, an alarming drop by any measure.
Measuring trainer performance is a tough task, with a fair amount of ‘chicken or the egg’ involved.
Did Black Caviar go undefeated in 25 starts - achieving a Timeform rating of 136 – due to the talents of Peter Moody, or did Peter Moody win 25 races on the back of the talents of Black Caviar?
I suspect the answer is a little bit of both.
Between 2009 and 2011, when the stable was sending out a steady stream of winners, Kavanagh-trained horses were running to an average Timeform rating of 78.69.
This figure eased back to 70.03 in 2013 and has now dropped right away to 65.4 in 2014.
The drop away is most glaring at the top end with the stable’s top ten horses in 2014 boasting an average rating of just 96.
From 2009 to 2011 the stables top ten gallopers, with included stars such as Whobegotyou, Maldivian, Shocking and Atlantic Jewel, had an average rating of 122.4!
We can fairly safely assume that the Mark Kavanagh of today is equipped with the same skill set as the Mark Kavanagh of 2009-2011. The stock, it seems, is simply not there.
The drop has coincided with the departure of star mare Atlantic Jewel. It could perhaps be something of a stable hangover.
Peter Moody spoke openly about the departure of his star mare Black Caviar in 2013 saying that it was tough for the whole yard and things certainly felt flat for some time coming off such a high.
In the four years that Black Caviar strutted her stuff for the Moody stable they were the most feared yard in the land, sending out 792 winners at 21-percent.
From her departure in April 2013 to the end of that year the yards strike rate fell to 16-percent. Still a strong figure (and it’s worth noting that Black Caviar herself aided somewhat to the 21-percent prior) but a clear drop all the same.
Success, it would seem, breeds success.
The market has picked up on Kavanagh’s lean run. The average SP for the stables runners from 2009-11 was $7.14. In 2014 it is out to $13.3.
This is where we might just find an edge. If, as we have assumed, Kavanagh retains all his training know-how then his numbers should improve back to their long term level as the quality of his stock rises.
Again we have to make an assumption here; that the quality of horses in any one stable goes in cycles and is basically ‘lucky’, but given that the market has gone cold on Kav it may just pay to keep a close eye on the stable heading into the spring.
