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Placing The Key To Success

Some interesting facts have come to light at the conclusion of season 2013-14.

Laidback Larry fitted the criteria when successful at Rosehill on August 2.
Laidback Larry fitted the criteria when successful at Rosehill on August 2. Picture: Racing and Sports

And moving forward it could make finding – and more importantly backing – a winner that little bit easier.

Using the extensive Racing And Sports database and crunching the numbers on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane metropolitan racing, the longer the races get the easier it is to find a winner.

The rule of thumb is that horses that have finished in the top five placings in the metropolitan area at their previous outings supply more than 60% of the winners when next seen in the metropolitan area.

And as the races get longer the percentage increases to almost 80%, or four out of every five races.

In Sydney, in races of less than 1200m, 63.5% of runners that have finished in the top five at their previous starts in the metropolitan area will go on to claim victory at their next appearance.

What confuses this number however is the rate at which first starters win in the metropolitan area at 1200m and shorter being 12.2% while last start winners at 1200m and shorter go on to claim 21.3% of races.

When the distance range increases from 1201m to 1600m, those finishing in the top five at their previous metropolitan start go on to win 73.4% of their races when next seen.

Only 2.4% of first starters in the metropolitan area win at this distance range with 21.2% of last start metropolitan winners going on to be victorious again.

Stepping out to a trip of 1601m and further, 79.7% of gallopers that have finished in the top five in the metropolitan area have gone on to victory at their next outing.

While no metropolitan first starters were victorious at 1601m or further, last start winners accounted for 25% of winners.

In the Melbourne metropolitan area 66.8% of gallopers that finish in the top five in the metropolitan area come out at their next start to win over a trip shorter than 1200m.

Of this group, 23.8% are last start metropolitan winners while 11.2% of debutants win over this distance range in the metropolitan area.

Stepping up to the distance range of 1201m to 1600m sees 71.8% of winners having finished in the top five at their last starts in the metropolitan area going on to victory at their next starts with only 1% having scored on debut while 22.3% were last start metropolitan winners.

Going to a distance of greater than 1601m, 76.9% go on to victory after finishing in the top five in the metropolitan area with 23.1% backing up after victory at their last starts.

Interestingly the middle trip – the 1201m to 1600m – is where more winners come from in the Brisbane metropolitan area with 77.7% backing-up from finishing in the top five at their last start in the metropolitan area.

There are 1.6% of winners scoring on debut in this distance range in the metropolitan area with 24.9% backing-up from having scored previously.

In races of 1601m and further, 76.1% come from top five finishers at their previous metropolitan outings with 21.6% backing-up from last start victories.

Back to races shorter than 1200m, only 60.6% come out and win after finishing in the top five at their previous outings with only 17.6% going on to win after being successful at their previous metropolitan outing.

However, first starters in Brisbane account for 15.8% of metropolitan victories in races shorter than 1200m.

So what does all this mean?

Betting in metropolitan races in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne can turn a loss into a profit by utilising strong statistical evidence.

The above figures are too compelling to ignore and should be used as a valuable check when fine tuning your selections.


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