This weekend's Group 2 Missile Stakes in Sydney presents quite a punting conundrum — all nine gallopers are resuming in the feature event.
This has only occurred once in the last 20 years, in 1997 when the John Hawkes trained Guineas defeated three rivals.
Since 1991, 202 gallopers have lined up in the Missile, with 104 of these racing first up.
Of these 104 participants, 14 were successful, providing a first up strike rate of 61%.And of these 14 winners, the average SP was $7.00 or 6-1 in the old terms.
Nine favourites have been successful in the last 20 years, with five-year-olds the most prevalent age group — having won six times.
Four-year-olds have the best record, having won five of the past 20 renewals, while only providing 18% of the participants.
Of interest is that three-year-olds have an impressive record in this event, although none in this age group will be racing on Saturday.
In the last 20 years, three mares have taken out the event, (Teasing '09, Pompeii '03 and Klokka '94), which is just below their participation rate.
So back to our conundrum. Punters have to isolate the horses that are fit and ready to perform fresh up from a spell. Is it sheer guesswork, or is the answer found in deeper analysis?
With a majority of the Missile runners targeted towards greater spring goals, one way of determining the horses capable of running close to their peak, is comparing previous first up performances in the race.
Lengths Off-Peak On Prior Best Performance First Up (Based on R&S Ratings):
Rebel Dane: 0L
Sweet Idea: 1.5LThump: 1.5L
Weary: 2.5LMessene: 3L
Boban: 5.5LRebel Dane, Sweet Idea and Thump have performed closer to their peak than any of their respective rivals — when first up.
And Rebel Dane produced his career peak at this course and distance first up last preparation in the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes.
If he’s able to repeat this level of performance on Saturday, Rebel Dane does profile as the horse to beat in this year’s Missile Stakes.
