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Can Dissident Go The Distance?

Star galloper Dissident is on trial at 2000m in Saturday's Group 1 Caulfield Stakes.

Dissident Fights Back And Beats Fawkner
Dissident Fights Back And Beats Fawkner Picture: Racing and Sports

Dissident has been one of the stars of the spring to date, winning both the Memsie and Makybe Diva Stakes at Group 1 level and then putting up a big performance under top-weight in the Rupert Clarke.

His form this time in has earned Dissident a Timeform rating of 127, a figure that puts him on level footing with chief Caulfield Stakes-rival Sacred Falls, and leaves Saturday's race not so much a test of Dissident's ability, but rather a test of his flexibility and durability.

The step from 1400m to 2000m is not one often undertaken in Australia and certainly not one successfully undertaken on a regular basis.

In-fact, the step from 1400m to 2000m has been used as a recipe for success just once in the last 10 years at the highest level.

That horse was Zipping, who turned the wheels over in the 2010 C.F Orr Stakes a month before stepping out to win the Australian Cup over 2000m.

It is safe to say that Zipping was a very different beast to Dissident who is unproven at the trip, having had just one attempt, finishing midfield in the Rosehill Guineas.

Zipping had already won 9 races at 2000m or beyond, placed in a pair of Cox Plate's, and twice run fourth in the Melbourne Cup (He then won a Turnbull, placed in another Cox Plate and remarkably ran fourth again in the Melbourne Cup. Some horse he was!).

In the last 10 years 300 horses (metro racetracks) have gone from 1400m straight to 2000m for 19 (6.3%) winners.

That exact strike-rate carries over to group and listed races where 110 runners have produced 7 winners.

It's hardly all doom and gloom for 'The Big D', however, as with a median SP of 18-1 (average 31-1) a majority of those runners went into their respective races without a great chance of winning, something that must be afforded to Dissident on Saturday.

Dissident will be high up in Caulfield Stakes markets and such horses have (understandably) a much better record than the group overall.

103 of the 300 horses have gone around at 10-1 and under, producing 14 of the 19 winners.

That strike-rate of 13.5% makes for better reading for fans of Dissident, as does the fact that the quartet that started at 5/1 and under at Group 1 level - where Dissident is expected to start - finished no worse than fifth and were responsible for Zipping.

So the task is tall for Dissident, but certainly not insurmountable, particularly for a horse of his talents.

Jockey Ben Melham believe Dissident has the assets to overcome the 1400m to 2000m jump.

"He's pretty casual but he's certainly well in himself," Melham said.

"The more I have to do with him the more confident I am that the 2000 metres won't be a drama for him.

"You definitely want to see him do it though."

If he can pass Saturday's test and run up to his form over 2000m he will find himself at the pointy end of Cox Plate hopefuls, and rightly so.


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