Success in a couple of feature races has seen jockey Luke Tarrant burst onto the scene this summer and the numbers suggest that his success has been anything but a fluke.
It is well known that the performance of jockeys is vital to the outcome of horse races but measuring just how valuable individual jockeys are is no easy task.
Basic jockey statistics like number of winners or strike-rates are skewed by opportunity.
Therefore we need to attempt to ‘level the playing field’ in order to measure ability over opportunity.
Using the market to come up with expected wins can bring us towards a value that better determines the impact that individual jockeys are having on their rides.
It is worth noting that this is still hardly the ideal as the top jockey’s bring about market support of their own, pushing up their expected wins, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction.
In the case of Luke Tarrant this value quickly showcases his talents beyond just his wins in the Villiers and Magic Millions.
Tarrant Reflects On Magic Millions Victory
Since the start of 2014 Tarrant has ridden 64 winners from 376 rides at a strike-rate of around 17-percent.
Seems a good strike-rate for an emerging jockey, sure, but how good?
In that time period Tarrant has ridden 1.08 winners for every expected winner.
This is impressive, and it doesn’t appear to be any short term streak. If we push back further and double the sample size Tarrant is riding bang on market expectation, riding a winner for every one that the market thinks he should since the start of 2013.
To put this into some context, champion jockey Damien Oliver has ridden 0.97 winners (a remarkable figure) for every expected winner in over 14000 rides since 1991.
And to further put that into context, Blake Shinn - who most would agree is riding in outstanding form this season - is riding 0.95 winners for every expected winner this term.
A couple of high-profile wins have put Luke Tarrant on the map, but the underlying figures are what are expected to keep him there.
