As the countdown begins towards the Group One Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper Stakes, it is an opportune time to look at how the current crop of juveniles compare to previous years.

In some quarters there is a perception that the current crop of juveniles is below the level of previous seasons, however our Timeform ratings analysis reveals they are far from the worst crop we have seen in the last six seasons.

In undertaking the analysis for the season to date ending 31st January, I have broken the six crops up by Timeform ratings bands 100 to 104, 105 – 109 and then into 110 and above.

At this stage of the year, as now seems to be the accepted practice, a large number of juveniles heading into the features have only been seen once or twice.

For example Gai Waterhouse’s last three Golden Slipper winners had raced just once prior to February 1st – Pierro (2012), Overreach (2013) and Vancouver (2015) which does make assessing their ability somewhat more difficult. Team Hawkes 2014 Golden Slipper winner Mossfun had also had just one run by this stage of the season.

That said there does seem to be a pattern emerging.

All but one Golden Slipper or Blue Diamond Stakes winner in the last 5 years had raced at least once prior to 1st February and all but one had a Timeform rating of 100 or higher at the same point. The exception being Mossfun in 2014 who has raced once in December returning a Timeform rating of 99+.

Timeform Analysis – 2YO Season until January 31st

The first point to note from the table above is that it clearly shows the current crop of juveniles compares favourably with the averages for the previous five renewals, indicating there is enough depth this season for some of the crop to make the necessary quick improvement required to achieve the average Timeform rating levels reached by the winners of previous feature race renewals.

Not surprisingly the Magic Millions Classic winners feature prominently amongst the higher rated juveniles at this time of the season because it presents the first opportunity to assemble runners from Qld, NSW and Victoria thereby allowing reliable connections for direct and indirect form lines between the juveniles in each of the major centres.

Past magic Millions Classic winners have all sat within the >= 110 Timeform rating band for the last six years with just one from the previous five renewals completing the double with either the Blue Diamond or Golden Slipper – Capitalist in 2016 who took out the Golden Slipper double.

However from now on, as the youngsters gear up for the features, some of them will make dramatic improvement in their Timeform ratings.

For example the average improvement shown by Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond winners in the previous five renewals is in the order of 12 pounds while the average improvement for the same winners when they came from the first ratings band was just over eight pounds.

That should come as no surprise because young horses, as a group, are the fastest ratings risers of any age group as they quickly learn what racing is all about and mature quickly with age and experience.

That is one of the biggest dilemma’s facing punters when juveniles re appear after just one or two runs and it is not restricted to just the lead ups to the feature juvenile races. It is an ongoing problem for form students and ratings analysts across the globe.

Perhaps the most significant observation from this analysis is that the top Timeform ratings band at this stage of the season has produced either the Golden Slipper or Blue Diamond Stakes winner for each of the previous five renewals and in the case of 2015-6, both features were won by the only two horses in this band – Extreme Choice and Capitalist, which was not unexpected as they had a margin of six and seven pounds respectively over the next Timeform rated Juveniles even at this early stage of the season.

Unfortunately after third acceptances, none of the juveniles in the top band this season remain in the Blue Diamond Stakes so historically, at least, the winner of Golden Slipper Stakes may lie within the top Timeform ratings band.

So let’s take a look at those five gallopers, Chauffeur (115), She Will Reign (114), Houtzen (114), Khan (113) and Menari (110) with an eye to their Golden Slipper prospects.

Click here for full list of latest Juvenile Timeform ratings (as at 31st January 2017)

https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/tf-rating-summary.asp?tfe=TF2yo

Chauffeur with a Timeform rating of 115 does have the capacity to improve further. If he achieves the historical average improvement of eight pounds from this ratings band, he could run to 123 in the Golden Slipper which is a figure good enough for success by a male juvenile.

The only historical concern for him is that in the last 25 years, no male galloper has placed in the Magic 2YO Millions and gone on to win the Golden Slipper. In the same period just five horses have contested the Magic Millions enroute to winning the Golden Slipper with three completing the double – all males.

This is probably the biggest “hoodoo” the unbeaten Houtzen faces. No filly has ever completed the Magic Millions – Golden Slipper double. Four have attempted the feat – Augusta Proud (2008), Military Rose (2010), Karuta Queen (2011) and Driefontein (2012) – all four finishing unplaced.

When compared on Timeform ratings, all four had a similar rating to Houtzen, so she has no advantage there.

She Will Reign is unbeaten in two runs, the last in the Inglis Nursery at Randwick over 1000m. She is yet to contest 1200m so her brilliance will need to stretch out further but while Extreme Choice failed to complete the Inglis – Slipper double he did destroy a Blue Diamond Stakes field prior.

Breeder’s Plate winner Khan is an interesting runner. He has not raced since that emphatic victory where he posted a Timeform rating of 113 – not that far off figures returned by recent Slipper winners Capitalist, Vancouver and Pierro in their Breeders Plate wins.

Interestingly the last three colts to have won the Golden Slipper all won the Breeders Plate and if Khan was to achieve the average eight pound historical improvement, then a 121 Timeform rating in the Slipper would see him in the finish.

Menari made the top ratings band after his luckless run in the Canonbury Stakes behind stable mate Pariah. He still have much to learn and even an eight pound historical improvement leap to 118 may still leave him short of what is required. But that said improvement beyond the average remains a possibility.

Time will tell, but one thing is for sure, the 2017 Golden Slipper Stakes is certain to captivate punters and racing enthusiasts - as it always does.