World Champion Luke Humphries is favourite to lift the Premier League Darts title on Thursday evening at the O2 Arena in London as the 17-week campaign comes to a close.
'Cool Hand' is a 6/4 leader in the betting having finished second in the Premier League standings to Luke Littler. Humphries was joint-leader in the competition when it came to night victories, securing four, with two runner-up performances and five semi-finals.
Humphries was the star performer across the middle part of the season and leads the competition in scoring average (100.46), matches with a 100+ average (19/32), boasts the highest average against the throw (102.72) and is second in 180s (107) and checkout percentage (41.42%).
He'll clash with Michael van Gerwen in the semi-finals, the defending Premier League champion. 'MVG' has been out of sorts in recent weeks averaging just 96.74 since the start of April. He also sits seventh in checkout percentage (36.78%) and seventh in functional doubles (44.76%).
The pair have met five times this season in the Premier League with Humphries winning four of those – by an aggregate score of 29-21 – with all five games going at least nine legs. 'Cool Hand' has won the last five meetings in all competitions and six of the last seven.
Humphries is 8/15 to defeat 'MVG' in the best-of-19 leg contest – the ballpark for a scoreline would seem to be around 10-7 (13/2) or 10-8 (7/1) in 'Cool Hand's' favour - throwing in 10-6 (7/1) would still return profit in a cover bet with even stakes.
The other semi-final sees Littler take on his nemesis Michael Smith. Despite topping the Premier League table with four night victories, two runners-up performances and seven semi-final appearances, Littler has lost five times to Smith in seven meetings in this season's Premier League.
His two wins did come in emphatic fashion with 6-2 and 6-1 maulings, but when Smith is on form he seems to have 'The Nuke's' number, and could benefit from the longer format of finals night with 19 legs to play with.
Littler out-averages Smith (99.20-96.45), has hit far more 180s (114-93), with the pair sharing similar checkout percentages (39.1-39.26%).
Given the close nature of the opponents, and Smith being a 7/4 outsider in the contest, we favour the underdog to win either 10-7 (12/1), 10-8 (10/1) or 10-9 (9/1) - again covering all three would possibly be the ploy.
Longshot Double (87/1)
Luke Humphries to beat Michael van Gerwen 10-6 (7/1)
Michael Smith to beat Luke Littler 10-8 (10/1)
