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Rosehill Winners - Tips For Saturday, 16th July 2022

Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting. Selections based on a heavy track.

Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

Race 1 - 11:10AM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Vinnie's Spirit is the likely leader and seems to be getting stronger as his prep progresses. Ran fourth in a 1200m two-year-old race here in May and was fancied, his latest effort was a solid all the way win at this trip at Newcastle on a heavy track. First use of the ground here, he should be hard to run down.

Dangers1. Alberich sat on the leader's hammer all the way on debut and raced away late in the heavy ground at Canterbury for an easy win. Can only be better for it, some concern the runner-up from that race was well beaten midweek but he's the logical danger. 3. Flag Of Honour had plenty of support at his first outing when scoring comfortably against older horses at Newcastle. Shapes as though the extra ground is going to suit and he's a good chance to measure up. Read trainer Kris Lees' comments here. 6. Zouson Boy had a tough run behind Vinnie's Spirit last start, giving the winner weight, after being slow out and fought on gamely in third. Blinkers on and he has to be included in the chances.

How to play it: Vinnie's Spirit WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 2 - 11:45AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Rebel Dreamer looks a nice filly on the up and there was some arrogance about her second-up win at Canberra as she swept home out wide to a popular win. Form around Iconic Dame, who won a Highway recently, is a handy guide and the 1200m holds no fears. Hard to beat.

Dangers5. Sir Ravanelli was a dual heavy track winner prior to a nice effort in a Highway over 1400m at Randwick where he drew wide and went forward. Fought on well and drawn to get an easier run. 1. So Country is building a smart record and enjoyed a perfect trail before putting his rivals away first-up at Armidale on a heavy track. 9. Overextend might be an improver back onto heavy ground, he ran a game second over this course three runs back and happy to forgive last time when ridden forward. Each-way chance.

How to play it: Rebel Dreamer WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 3 - 12:20PM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Pizarro was quite eye-catching first-up in deteriorating conditions here a couple of weeks ago, suggesting he's come back in great order. More stable ground should be right up his alley, fitter and the extra 100m will only suit judging on how he found the line fresh. Capable of sitting closer from a better gate too.

Dangers2. Dehorned Unicorn looked all over a winner on the home turn when he dashed away last start but was reeled in late. Comes back 100m and you'd expect he will be right on the speed again from gate one with Glyn Schofield riding. 10. Pretty Wild measured up well to this grade at her second start when narrowly beaten at Randwick three weeks ago. Debut win was on heavy ground so that holds no fears. Go well. 4. Riva Del Sol was unfancied in betting but did the job well in beating Pizarro third-up. Has a 2kg swing against her but can't leave her out.

How to play it: Pizarro WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 4 - 12:55PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

This Midway is tough as they come. 11. Moralist is quite honest and thought he attacked the line with purpose fresh at Randwick albeit on firmer ground. Is capable in the heavy and with that run under his belt is set up well to handle it. Good each-way chance.

Dangers: Wary of 14. Danish Prince returning after contesting the Provincial-Midway Championships series and finishing three lengths from Rustic Steel reads well for a race like this. Wouldn't surprise if he runs a cheeky race at odds. 3. Monte Ditto rises 2.5kg for his breakthrough win in a Midway two weeks ago where he was strong on the line. If the soft draw is a plus then he could repeat. 17. Air To Air has been hard to catch but there's no doubt around her ability when right. In new yard now and would be throwing her into multiples and early quaddies.

How to play it: Moralist E/W ($12 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 5 - 1:30PM VALE NICK MORAITIS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

6. Comme Bella Fille has a great platform to atone for a narrow defeat third-up where she just failed to run down Nothinsweetaboutme over the 1800m at Randwick. Drops 6kg for the rise in class and while there again doesn't appear to be a lot of speed she is adaptable enough and a testing track shouldn't worry her. Read jockey Reece Jones' comments here.

Dangers3. Lord Ardmore does have some tactical speed and will likely be right up on pace if not leading. He's a month between runs and jumping 500m from his nice first-up effort behind Coal Crusher so they are the negatives but he could easily overcome them. 1. Francesco Guardi finished strongly to score over this trip three weeks ago and has to come into the mix. Yet to see a heavy track if he ticks that box is a major threat. 2. Mubariz didn't do a lot fresh in the Civic Stakes but wasn't really expected to. Now he's up to his distance range he could be an improver though it is now getting a while between wins.

How to play it: Comme Bella Fille WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 6 - 2:05PM VINERY STALLIONS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

12. Fiordland is racing out of his grade but is coming right into his peak after a strong second-up heavy track win at Canterbury where he was well supported and coasted in. Won third-up last prep on a heavy track and in a race with a few question marks he should be very competitive.

Dangers8. Lease is an honest on pacer who will put himself up there and give a sight. Probably missed his ideal race two weeks ago when the meeting was called off but he ran well last week behind Kanazawa after leading. Back-up suits and he's in the mix. 10. Speed Legend is probably not right at home on heavy ground but he's been finishing nicely this time in and comes through some strong form races won by Cross Talk and Brimstone. Keep in mind. 1. Alcyone won fresh last prep and while unknown in the heavy is worth keeping safe, not sure what to do with 2. Head Of State. Had cardiac arrhythmia in the Spring Champion when a $4.40 chance. Since been gelded and not exposed in his trials.

How to play it: Fiordland WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 7 - 2:40PM VICTOR LUDORUM @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

8. Brimstone is another racing out of his grade but he is a horse on the way up and the form around him is stacking up. Chased Cross Talk on a heavy track first-up before a sound effort at Warwick Farm. Accounted for Highly Desired, who won easily midweek, at Kensington last time. Drops nicely in weight for the class rise, is hard fit and sure to run well again. Read trainer Brad Widdup's comments here.

Dangers10. Bold Mac is a market watch first-up for Chris Waller since a win in New Zealand in May. Liked his recent trial and the wet track won't be an issue. 2. Yiyi is rarely far away and he resumes at a suitable trip. Forgiving his heavy track failure before a spell, he's trialled okay and should be around the mark. 5. Irish Legend created a good impression at his local debut running third behind Wicklow here a month ago. Not sure coming back 100m is ideal looking at his overseas form but stays under notice. 1. Toomuchtobear is also worth considering, he won first-up at 1400m last prep and while his trials have been quiet judge him on his race form and yard appearance.

How to play it: Brimstone WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 8 - 3:20PM TAB HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

1. Philipsburg is a backmarker which can be problematic at times but he is a very good wet tracker and backs up after running on into third in arguably a stronger race at Randwick last week. There looks to be some tempo on paper and if they are able to run on he gets his chance. Read trainer James Ponsonby's comments here.

Dangers3. Flexible disappointed last start at Randwick but it was a slowly run race and she didn't come into it at all. She is a good wet tracker and while drawn out with the blinkers on she could easily find form. 8. Lovetheinvasion ran fourth in the same race as Flexible after setting the slow tempo in front. She is very effective on heavy ground and will again be on speed. Entitled to another chance. 11. Reach Beyond drops 8.5kg on an easy win at Scone on a heavy track and while this is harder he does like to race handy and wouldn't shock if he was somewhere in the finish.

How to play it: Philipsburg WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 9 - 4:00PM CHINA HORSE CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

13. Frumos is the most interesting runner all day and has opened up a short-priced favourite on the back of two very easy wins at Newcastle. Naturally a big leap in class here but she looks to be well above the class she's been racing and winter is a good time to make the leap to city grade. Likely to be in the second half of the field and if she's as smart as she looks can round them up.

Dangers2. Il Affare is another query runner, she was excellent at her first run for the Waller yard at Flemington over this trip. Was good enough to run fourth in the New Zealand Derby and on a heavy track staying at the trip is probably no negative. 7. Tawfiq Lass was impressive breaking through on a heavy track at Canterbury after sitting on the speed. Does have the tricky draw but she is a good wet tracker worth including in the chances. 4. Sur La Mer is another very capable wet tracker and it's now a month between runs sine her win at Warwick Farm under 61kg. Just not sure where she finds herself in the run here so am a little against her but can't overlook completely.

How to play it: Frumos WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 10 - 4:40PM FAB INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. Snowzone is on the back up after he tried very hard to run down the well supported Conscript at Randwick last week. And that might be the key. He was five weeks between runs going into that race so should strip fitter and the draw allows him to come across with the speed and find a spot. In that scenario he'll be right in the finish.

Dangers12. Shades Of Rose was a bit of a drifter first-up before the saddle slipped on her and she bucked, before being eased out of the race two weeks ago. Unbeaten prior to that and she has since trialled well. Will roll forward and it'll be interesting to see what happens. Read trainer Bjorn Baker's comments here. 3. Our Bellagio Miss will appreciate getting back onto a heavy track after an even effort behind Hulk at Randwick back onto a good surface. She's always an each-way chance under these conditions. 4. Distillate is racing in super form and does relish the heavy ground as she showed leading all the way at Canterbury in midweek company. Still down in the weights with the claim and has a show.

How to play it: Snowzone WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.


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