There’s no way trainer Michael Freedman will play down the significance of what the outside barrier means for Backrower at Randwick on Saturday but is still hopeful he can kick off his prep on a positive note.
It will leave Michael Freedman with little choice but to bank on a vintage Hugh Bowman ride in the Midway Handicap (1200m).
"I think 16 of 16 always matters. We'll get him going, ride him for a bit of luck from out there,'' he said.
"He's probably going to have to be a bit conservative with cover, see if Hughie can find a half decent spot on him somewhere and be running on."
Backrower, $4.60 with TAB on Friday, displayed plenty of promise around this time last year when he chased home top class peers Osipenko and Madame Pommery at his second start and then split Derby winners Manzoice and Major Beel at start three.
Those runs were on soft 6 and 7 ground and his debut win was on a heavy track so the conditions are far less a concern than the barrier.
He only had one run in the summer when a decision was made to geld the horse and Freedman said everything so far, including his come from behind recent trial win, has pointed to it being the right call.
"He was getting a few little issues and we thought gelding him might lighten him up a little bit and I think it's been good for him,'' he said.
"He's a better shape of a horse and certainly seems to have come back in good order.
"Right from the early stages he was a horse that showed nice ability. He's had a nice long spell and good solid build up over the past couple of months to get him fitted up for this.
"It's a matter of getting a run under his belt and seeing how he goes, and see what level we can get him to in the spring."
Freedman saddles up Randwick Guineas winner Communist in the Group 1 $1 million Winx Stakes (1400m) and he's quietly confident he can run well above market expectation.
The four-year-old, $51 with TAB on Friday, has trialled twice running fourth behind Alligator Blood on both occasions.
"He's got good form from the autumn and I've been really happy with both his trials,'' he said.
"The 1400m first-up should suit him, when we started him over 1200m in the autumn he found a few of them a touch sharp even though he ran third.
"I think he goes into the race with good credentials and Randwick is a track he likes."
Time To Boogie will have plenty of admirers in the ACY Securities Handicap (1200m) and while Freedman can't fault his form he does have his fingers crossed if Randwick remains heavy.
There's simply no data to give him confidence the gelding will relish it.
"It's a big question mark, he might hate it,'' he said.
"We'll have to run him and see if he likes it, if he handles it he'll run well and if he doesn't he'll run poorly."
Brudenell just outgunned Time To Boogie when they met at Rosehill two weeks ago, prior to that he'd posted all the way wins at Gosford and Randwick.
Michael Freedman on Mumbai Muse (race 9): "I think she's a good filly, I've been very happy with both of her trials. I don't know with the track conditions whether that's going to suit so we'll have a think about her. She's a nice filly in the making, she's only had the two starts and was pretty unlucky behind Learning To Fly at her first start and pulled up with issues after her second."
