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New Zealand and South Africa odds on for fourth-title decider

The southern hemisphere reigns supreme; after all the talk and all the predictions, history triumphed over form as New Zealand and South Africa defeated Ireland and France respectively to make their way to the Rugby World Cup semi-finals.

Rugby World Cup trophy.
Rugby World Cup trophy.

Ireland and France had both been odds on favourites for the tournament, and bookies were offering short odds on a France-Ireland decider in Paris on October 28, but that has now given way to a sense of inevitability around the showpiece match taking place between South Africa and New Zealand (1/4).

The two were both exceptional in their quarter-finals, as were their opponents. The difference proved to be a mental one, with both South Africa and New Zealand knowing that the balance of history weighted them as the two greatest rugby nations on the planet.

When counting their World Cups, that assertion is undeniable; both have three, South Africa being the defending champions, and both will now feel that they are on their way to pipping the other to a fourth.

The way the draw fell meant that two less-fancied teams were always due to make it to the penultimate stage, and Argentina and England have ridden ups and downs to take those spots.

Few will envy their challenge, with Argentina facing a free-flowing New Zealand and England facing a physically monstrous South Africa, but the reality is that both are only 80 minutes away from a World Cup final.

If one is to cause an upset, England feel the more likely. They are 5/1 to upset 1/5 South Africa, but it will require everyone on the pitch to be near perfect: their pack has been solid this tournament (Ben Earl put in a sensational performance v Fiji), but their entire XV must miss as few tackles as possible.

Their back three must also be mindful of any sudden breakaway from Cheslin Kolbe, who turned up big time against France and will be one to keep an eye on for anytime try scorer.

Yet ultimately, South Africa have the quality to punish England in a way none of their opponents this tournament have. The Boks winning by between 11-15 is at 5/1, with 6-10 at 6/1.

Argentina were 10-0 down at one point in the first 40 against Wales, but when there was a change of referee due to injury, momentum swung the way of Los Pumas.

The South American side did what they have always done best and drew the Welsh team in at the breakdowns to force mistakes. They unsettled the Welsh pack at the scrum and lineout and overpowered the defence when in the opposition 22.

Mentally, perhaps no nation is better suited to the role of underdog than Argentina who continue to routinely outperform themselves on the Rugby World Cup stage.

This is their third appearance in a semi-final stage, all coming in the past five editions, and for that they deserve the utmost respect. They will have no problem with believing that they will win, but the bookies do not agree, pricing them as 9/1 longshots. The favoured All Blacks are 5/1 to win by 16-20, and if they get some early scores, it could be even more.


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