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New Zealand and South Africa battle for fourth crown

After almost two months of rugby, one of the sport's greatest ever World Cups has reached its final weekend.

Rugby World Cup trophy.
Rugby World Cup trophy.

From the Flying Fijians and the collective infatuation with the Portuguese to the shattering of Ireland's dream and the heartbreak for the French, this tournament has offered up thrilling narratives and nail-biting games in a way few competitions have done so before.

Now, it all comes to a head on Saturday evening when South Africa and New Zealand face off in Paris to decide who gets the fourth World Cup title- and who has the bragging rights as the greatest rugby nation on the planet.

Rugby Union as a sport feels like it is at a crossroads; the game could be in a thoroughly different place come Australia 2027, with uncertainty over its long-term future and concerns over sustainability at a club level.

But for now, the focus is on the two teams who have proved once again that they are simply on another level when it comes to international rugby.

Both the Boks and the All Blacks undeniably deserve their spots in the Stade de France showpiece. They have not just shown flair, but crucially they have outfought their rivals at key moments.

That's particularly true of the reigning champions, who not only had to get past the hosts in the quarters but then an England side in the semis who demonstrated grit and tactical know-how.

It is a testament to the South Africans that they could be behind for three quarters of the match against England and still come out on top; their scrum saved them, as did the cool boot of Handre Pollard.

Going for the seven forwards, one back bench split in the final is a bold move, but one thoroughly in keeping with Rassie Erasmus' modus operandi - he is truly the Jose Mourinho of Rugby.

The Boks, 5/6, are tipped as slight underdogs behind their opponents who come in as favourites at 6/5. That may well be because the bookies see South Africa as having played their final a game early, just as England did in 2019, while New Zealand were treated to a leisurely 44-6 romping of Argentina in their penultimate match.

The game will be close. In every clash of two elite teams this tournament, with the exception of the France-New Zealand opener, the winning margin has not exceeded five: Ireland beat South Africa by five and lost to New Zealand by four, while South Africa beat France and England by just one.

For either side, then, a margin of victory by 1-5 feels likely, with both roughly priced around 4/1 at that margin.

Tryscorer wise, it's hard to ignore New Zealand wing Will Jordan who, currently on eight, is on the precipice of breaking the record for the most tries in a single tournament. He is evens to do so.

Don't discount Ardie Savea either - he was a beast against Ireland and may be the go-to man again in what will no doubt be a tight affair.

In truth, South Africa will probably be happy with no one on either side crossing (under 1.5 match tries is at 8/1) but if someone in green and gold does bundle over it will likely be one of their forwards. Choosing from among them is difficult. Bongi Mbonambi is one option at 3/1.


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