Luton Town will play host to Man City in the fifth round of the FA Cup on Tuesday night (2000 GMT) and we’re expecting the away side to win by a margin.
We've been banging our big orange Luton Town drum for most of the season but the Hatters are enduring a rather sticky period.
Rob Edwards' side have been very profitable to back when it comes to the Asian handicap market as they've gone toe-to-toe with the giants of English football.
We're reaching the business end of the season now where the cream tends to rise to the top and Town are conceding too many goals to be competitive.
On the other hand, we've also found success by betting against Man City. Back-to-back wins have bagged Pep Guardiola's side a crucial six points, but they're not battering teams.
Eight of their last nine matches have been decided by two or fewer goals but they seem to be catching Luton at a good time.
There's the small matter of the Manchester derby taking place at the weekend but with Kevin De Bruyne and others sitting out against Bournemouth, we expect a full-strength City side.
Their Premier League meeting at Kenilworth Road saw Edwards' side successfully frustrate the champions before taking the lead in the 45th minute.
We're expecting them to come flying out of the traps and try and put this game to bed a lot earlier this time around.
Team news
Tom Lockyer, Marvellous Nakamba, Elijah Adebayo, Jacob Brown, Albert Sambi-Lokonga and Mads Andersen are ruled out due to injury.
In better news, Daiki Hashioka and Alfie Doughty were recently passed fit and may play a role.
Joskvo Gvardiol remains the only absentee for Gardiola's side.
The City boss may opt to make some changes, such as reintroducing Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Julian Alvarez to the starting XI.
Key stats
- Luton Town have conceded 13 goals in their last four
- There have been over 2.5 in Luton's last seven
- Man City have three goals in six of their last eight away games
- Man City outshot Luton 18 to 4 in their last meeting
Suggested bets
Man City -1.5 Asian handicap
Kevin De Bruyne to score
Over 2.5 goals
