Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Race 1 - 1:15PM PACIFIC PLAN MANAGEMENT PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (1600 METRES)

4. Midori Giant resumed a fortnight ago at Goulburn after one trial, and the late market trade suggested he would improve from the run. The gelding began awkwardly, wasn't suited to the race shape, and had to make a long-wide sustained sprint running into third. Further, he clocked solid closing splits, and that race rated highly relative to the day after adjustments. The three-year-old is much more suited up in trip and will have benefited from the run. In addition, he stepped significantly from a ratings perspective second-up last campaign, and he can rate to win.

Dangers: 3. High Dandy resumes off a long break, and he has trialled well. Forget his debut run last prep, where nothing went right, and the 1600m suits here. 6. Bush Girl was checked/blocked at key stages last start at Newcastle and should've finished closer. He drops back in distance but has had a 33-day freshen. 1. Eltoroson always faced the breeze in a fast tempo and was brave in defeat last start at the Sapphire Coast. He can roll forward and give a sight.

How to play it: Midori Giant WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 2 - 1:50PM AUSTRALIAN STEEL MILL SERVICES C1 HCP (1600 METRES)

D-day 2. Private Legacy, who started $1.30 first-up at Goulburn and, although beaten, she was solid in defeat. The filly wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape and outsprinted, but once she got her mind on the job, she knuckled down hard late to finish second, beating the rest easily. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and she recorded one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. She gets a more suitable race setup here that suits her profile, and expect her to be hard to beat.

Dangers: Import 1. Rattle And Hum is having his Australian debut, and he is wound right up for this after two solid trials. The gelding was ridden out in his latest heat at Randwick over 1200m, but he hit the line well. He is a key market watch. 3. Highborn Harry got too far back last start at Hawkesbury and ran on ok. Third-up and a rise in trip is ideal. 5. This Is The Moment comes through the same race but was 43 days between and was solid, running fourth. He returns to his home track and will be fitter. 4. Sovereign Dane can give a sight up on the speed.

How to play it: Private Legacy WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 3 - 2:25PM SUPERNOVA FINANCIAL BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

Leaning towards 2. Negotiations who was impressive winning first-up at Wyong, and he did it in style. The gelding raced fresh throughout, got into an awkward spot before the turn, but once balancing up in the straight, he accelerated hard and savaged the line to run the fastest final 400m/200m splits of the meeting. He has an improver's action, and all key indicators suggest he can only step off that effort with the bigger track suiting.

Dangers: 7. Bonita Queen did it on both ends last start and bolted in to run very slick time relative to the day. The filly was heavily backed, ran his rivals ragged leading at a fast pace and kept responding under pressure. Forgiving of 11. Opal Fields last start at Goulburn, where she had factors against and the 1000m third-up suits. 6. Unstopabull loomed to win first-up at Kenisngotn but peaked on his run. He'll be fitter.

How to play it: Negotiations WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 4 - 3:05PM WARILLA BOWLS AND RECREATION CLUB MAIDEN HCP (1200 METRES)

3. Extreme Frilly had too much to do first-up at Hawkesbury, but she has returned improved and produced a career peak figure. The five-year-old drifted back from a wide draw, wasn't suited to the pace of the race, but made up significant ground in the straight. The clock backed up the visuals with the mare recording the fastest final 200m split of the meeting, and the overall time was solid. She has a tricky draw, but with even luck, expect her to be in the finish.

Dangers: Market watch on 1. Nibidano, who has had a long time off the scene but resumes as a gelding. He has trialled well going through the line full of energy and hasn't been extended. Respecting 2. Swift Sweet's past figures and SPs. The four-year-old failed first-up but can bounce back from a soft draw. Expect an aggressive ride on 11. Roman Song and he was honest in defeat first-up.

How to play it: Extreme Frilly WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 5 - 3:40PM PETER MACK MEMORIAL BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

Leaning towards 9. Treasurer, who represents value, and he had too much to do last start at Newcastle after getting too far back in a high-pressure race. Further, he had to exert all his energy between the 600m-200m, running one of the meeting's fastest splits for that section. He had excuses in the straight and peaked on his run. The gelding maps to have all favours, the claim suits, and he has a strong record at this track/distance. Can rate to win. Each-way.

Dangers: 10. Royal Invader has been honest at the metropolitan level all campaign and finds a winnable race here. She gets in well after the claim and maps to have all favours. 5. Give Me Joy is 40 days between runs but drops sharply in grade and is suited over this distance. 1. O'Tycoon is racing well and ran solid time to score at Wyong last start. 7. C'Mon Mate gets a much more positive race setup.

How to play it: Treasurer E/W ($17 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 6 - 4:20PM JACK PRIMMER ELECTRONICS SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1400 METRES)

3. Mr Caleb resumed as a gelding first-up at Newcastle 19 days ago, and he ran above market expectations when just missing in a tight finish. The three-year-old got too far back, was initially outsprinted, but he kept building momentum and was strong to the line, indicating a rise in trip is ideal. Further, that race rated well relative to the day, and the form out of it has since been proven with a subsequent winner and multiple placegetters. He has a tricky draw, but 1400m suits second-up and last campaign; he improved sharply from a figure's perspective.

Dangers: 6. Wembanyama returns as a gelding and has been impressive at the trials. He has won two trials over 1050m, giving him a solid platform, and he responded well when asked for an effort to win his latest heat at Randwick. 4. Spanish Fox wasn't suited to the tight-turning track last start and can bounce back here. 12. Ladyking always gave the impression she would come back improved and is a key late-market watch.

How to play it: Mr Caleb WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 7 - 4:55PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL-MIDWAY CHAMPIONSHIP QUAL (1400 METRES)

1. Strait Acer profiles well for this event and is well suited under the race conditions. The Group 1 placegetter went to a new level last preparation, and he has dominant ratings over his rivals in this assignment. He resumed at Randwick 12 days ago in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m), and he wasn't suited to the high-pressure sprint event but still ran an honest race with his sectionals suggesting he can only step off that performance. The Edward Cummings-trained runner will relish the rise in trip at Kembla Grange, which suits his racing style. In addition, his key attribute is his closing speed, and the anticipated genuine tempo will allow him to charge over the top of his rivals. Hard to beat with even luck.

Dangers: 4. Willaidow has gone to a new level this prep, and he smashed the clock last start at Rosehill in Midway grade. He did it on both ends, leading throughout at a fast pace and kept responding under pressure. The break between runs is his usual pattern, and he is proven over 1400m. Expect him to give a big sight. 7. Ausbred Flirt has multiple factors in her favour, and she resumes off a 117-day spell. The mare has had two trials leading into this and looks ready to sprint fresh. Further, she is unbeaten at this track and maps to have all favours. 2. Cloudland has a tricky setup but raced well/consistently all last campaign and can measure up here. Add 3. Basarwa, who will be fitter, and 11. Territory Express will be charging late.

How to play it: Strait Acer WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 8 - 5:35PM SEN 1170 BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

Tricky race and leaning towards 3. Satness, who finds a winnable race fourth-up. The five-year-old drops sharply in grade and receives a positive race setup. He always faced the breeze last start at Randwick in Midway grade but didn't run out a strong 1600m. Back in distance suits here, and he returns to his home track with the dry surface suiting where he produces all his peak figures. Each-way.

Dangers: 10. Hemsworth presents as a knockout chance after a solid first-up effort at Kensington behind subsequent winner Whinchat. He will be fitter from that effort and the claim suits. 7. Side Show is coming off a strong maiden win, and he maps to have all favours from the inside gate. 1. Spaltet has a tricky setup but has the closing speed to run over the top of his rivals. Market watch 6. Defining who resumes off a long break.

How to play it: Satness E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).

Best Bet Race 7 # 1 - Strait Acer

Next Best: Race 3 # 2 - Negotiations

Best Value: Race 5 # 9 - Treasurer