Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Saturday's Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 11:15AM GOSFORD IT 2YO HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Improving two-year-old 1. Imperial Force showed key attributes to break through for his maiden win last start at Canterbury, and he ran fast time relative to the day with the margins throughout confirming the quality. The colt showed gate speed, chased a fast tempo throughout and accelerated hard off the turn to win dominantly. He profiles to step again, and he's had a tick-over trial between runs where he went to the line not extended in a recent heat at Rosehill. He is still learning but brings the best last-start figure and a key fitness edge. Expect him to roll forward and look to have first use of the track.
Dangers: 3. Sovereign Hill started a solid favourite on debut last prep at Warwick Farm, and he put his opposition away easily after leading throughout. He's had an extended break but looks to have come back well after two strong trials, which gives him a platform to kick off his campaign. Further, his last few bounds had merit in his latest heat at Randwick in testing conditions. 7. Point And Shoot was restrained first-up at Rosehill and wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape. He ran on hard to his credit and clocked the race's fastest closing splits. The rise in trip suits and he can settle closer. 10. Tradelli is wound up for this, and he's had excuses in both of his career starts. 6. Omnic is a knockout chance who would've improved sharply with race experience.
How to play it: Imperial Force WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 11:50AM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Happy to forgive 12.Xtra Gear's last start at Rosehill, where she had the pace/bias against her, and she represents value in this event. Before that, the mare had raced well, and she can bounce back here with a significant barrier change, allowing her to find a more suitable rhythm. She is at optimal fitness, is the likely leader and can skip away at the top of the straight. Each-way.
Dangers: 2. Cecil Street Lad is a knockout chance, and he excels on rain-affected ground. He can settle closer, absorb the pressure and is a winner at this track. Additionally, he receives a gear change and can rate to win. 7. Navy Blood resumes off a 62-day break and has had two solid trials where he went to the line not extended in his latest heat at Rosehill. He can sprint fresh and draws kindly. 15. Spicy Hotpot was caught three wide out on a limb last start, but her first-up run had sectional merit. Add 13. Los Padres who is on the quick backup.
How to play it: Xtra Gear E/W ($17 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 12:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Lightly raced improver 12. Cool Duke has won three in a row on heavy ground and gets his chance in Highway grade here. The four-year-old smashed the clock last start at Tuncurry after being heavily backed, and his effort was full of merit. He always faced the breeze at a very fast pace, showed a turn of foot and his late visual strength was backed up by the clock with the gelding running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. He sets up well here from a favourable draw. A senior rider goes on for the first time in his career, and he has the platform to step.
Dangers: 6. Tanglewood deserves favouritism with his profile, and he raced well first-up at Rosehill after being specked late in the trade. Second-up last prep, he produced his career peak figure, and repeating that effort/performance will make him hard to hold out. Forgive 11. Ticklebelly last start, where she was checked/blocked at a critical stage and had her momentum haltered. She can bounce back, and all her best runs have been in testing conditions. 3. Remember Jack is a consistent type with a strong finish and 1. Lubrication is back in form but must carry a hefty weight.
How to play it: Cool Duke WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 1:00PM TOOHEYS NEW BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (2200 METRES)
Like 9. Funambulist, who represents value and everything about his profile suggests he's ready to peak fourth-up. Two starts back, he SPed a respectable $13 behind subsequent Group 1 winner Circle Of Fire, albeit being well beaten, and then his effort was full of merit last start at Kensington in a similar grade race. The six-year-old settled at the rear of the field in a very slow tempo and had to make a long-wide sustained run. He had too much to do, but he hit the line hard and recorded the race's fastest closing splits in a high-rating last section after adjustments. He is now at optimal fitness and has a strong record at the distance. In addition, he handles all conditions, and he drops in weight, enhancing his closing speed. Good each-way.
Dangers: 14. Naval Comission was a strong winner last start at Scone after being challenged, but he out-toughed his opponent with a hefty weight. He drops 6.5kg off that effort, and all his peak figures have come on heavy ground. Expect him to roll forward, stepping up in trip and run boldly. 11. Anderson Bridge brings strong three-year-old proven formlines, and he has the ability to bounce back here. 2. Speycaster had last use of the track at Canterbury 10 days ago on deteriorating ground, and he burst through a gap in style to score. He will need a touch of luck but can step off that performance. 6. Thought Provoking follows a similar pattern to when she won last time, which was on a heavy surface. 8. Our Maryanne is a winner at this track, and forgive her last start.
How to play it: Funambulist E/W ($16 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 1:35PM SIGNARAMA ERINA / GOSFORD 3&4YO BM 72 HCP (1600 METRES)
4. Nana's Wish gets conditions to suit and expecting an aggressive ride from the middle draw to lead in a race that lacks genuine speed on paper. She didn't appreciate the sit/sprint race shape last start when taking a trail, but to her credit, once she got clear in the straight and built momentum, she savaged the line, clocking the second fastest final 200m split of the day. She is rock-hard fit, appreciates wet ground and runs to a consistent figure that puts her in the finish.
Dangers: 12. Wembanyama has been racing well since his gelding operation, and he gets his chance to bounce back in the winner's stall here. His sectional profile suggests he's at his peak, and the rise to 1600m fourth-up with the blinkers going on for the first time is a plus. 9. Scarlet Oak is a lightly raced improver with untapped potential, and a win wouldn't shock here. She is a key late-market watch. Forget 2. Green Shadows went around last start, where he was mathematically out of the race. His previous win puts him near the finish in this event, with the claim suiting.
How to play it: Nana's Wish WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
R6 - 2:10PM *BIG DANCE ELIG* BUTERIN L'ESTRANGE GOSFORD GOLD CUP (2200 M)
Keen on 4. Goldman, who sets up well for this assignment, and he revels in the testing conditions. The gelding was heavily backed throughout the morning first-up in the Group 3 JRA Plate (2000m) at Randwick, and he tried hard in defeat in a fast-time race relative to the day. He chased a fast tempo throughout, never shirked his task to the line whilst the other on-pace runners faded, and he battled on to hold second. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained runner will be fitter for that, maps to control the speed, and all his peak figures have come on heavy ground. He'll take some catching.
Dangers: 9. Hezashocka comes through the same race and had excuses after having to make his run through the inferior ground. The gelding has yet to have much luck throughout this campaign, but he has the ability to win this event, and his ratings support this. 8. Esti Feny won this race last year, and he was a strong winner last start, saluting in the Mornington Cup (2400m). He was run to suit but absorbed the pressure and hit the line hard. 7. Sir Lucan was soft in the betting first-up at Rosehill and can bounce back here with a run under his belt. He has strong formlines and expect a positive ride from the wide draw.
How to play it: Goldman WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 2:45PM DE BORTOLI WINES TAKEOVER TARGET STAKES (1200 METRES)
16. Semillion hasn't won for some time, but he's racing well this preparation, and all his peak performances/figures have come on rain-affected going that line up strongly for this assignment. The four-year-old is an honest on-pace type and has started respectable prices this campaign in similar grade races. He jumped from a wide gate last start at Caulfield but showed a natural pace to cross his rivals to lead at an even tempo. Further, he was only swamped over the concluding stages to finish second. He draws an inside gate in this event, and expect him to roll forward with no weight on his back and take some running down. It's worth noting that the Hawkes stable has successfully used the switch play from Melbourne to Sydney numerous times, and jockey Zac Lloyd is riding above market expectations. He has ridden 16 winners out of his past 100 rides for a profit on turnover of 7.3%.
Dangers: Another one of the lightweights 14. Wategos can improve sharply here, and expect a positive ride with the gelding stepping out to 1200m. He wasn't suited to the race shape first-up and ran hidden closing splits. 10. Stefi Magnetica, a dual-acceptor, was Group 1 placed last campaign and resumes off a 70-day spell. She will still have residual fitness from last prep and has trialled well. 11. Tashi brings a strong SP profile relative to her rivals, and she is in career-best form. Happy to forgive her last start, and if she can bounce back to her effort two starts ago behind Subsequent Group 1 winner Chain Of Lightning, she'll be hard to hold out. 12. Ballroom Bella has been a victim of poor barriers all prep, and she finally maps to get a perfect run. She is 28 days between runs but went down fighting last start. Add 6. Astero who relishes heavy going.
How to play it: Semillion E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 3:20PM THE COAST (1600 METRES)
9. Tavi Time profiles well for the feature event and is suited under the race conditions. The gelding had too much to do last start in a high-rating Provincial-Midway Championships Final (1400m) at Randwick, and his run had merit. Although run to suit, he got too far back from a wide draw, but to his credit, he ran on well and clocked solid closing sectionals. The Kris Lees galloper has a much more positive race setup for this assignment, with a significant barrier change allowing him to settle closer, and he drops 6kg off that last start effort, which will enhance his key asset of acceleration. In addition, his career peak figure came over this distance and on rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Expecting 1. Grebeni to improve sharply here, coming through a high-pressure race at Rosehill a fortnight ago. The four-year-old was a victim of circumstances, but to his credit, he ran on hard, clocking strong closing splits, and all key indicators suggest he'll step off that effort. He is a consistent type, is undefeated second-up and has a fantastic record at the trip. 3. Iknowastar comes through the same race and beat that galloper home with his run being full of merit. He led at a very fast pace and shot clear at the top of the straight but was just run down late. Further, his effort can be bonused with the other on-pace runners fading. 2. Williamsburg was 28 days between runs last start and peaked on his run. He'll relish the conditions and maps well.
How to play it: Tavi Time WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 9 - 4:00PM TRIPLE M THUNDER THOUSAND BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (900 METRES)
3. Jedibeel was heavily backed first-up at Kensington 16 days ago, and he ran smart time winning, producing a career peak figure. He had every chance stalking an even tempo, but his effort had merit after breaking down his splits whilst carrying a hefty weight. He exerted all his energy between the 600m-200m mark, accelerated hard and maintained a solid finishing speed to the line after peaking on his run. He has a proven second-up record and races well on wet ground. All key indicators suggest he can step off his last-start performance with the anticipated genuine tempo suiting.
Dangers: They'll have to catch speedy mare 5. Passeggiata, who will look to run her rivals ragged. She resumes off a long break and has won a recent trial at Rosehill. Further, the 900m suits; she is a proven fresh performer. 7. Storm The Ramparts needed the run first-up after being a savage drifter in the betting late in the trade. The blinkers go back on, and he's won the last two times they've been reapplied. 11. Jambalaya is a lightly raced galloper coming out of the Godolphin yard, and he moved well to win a recent trial at Warwick Farm, albeit on the synthetic. Market watch on 2. Mogo Magic, who has had some time off the scene but has the ability.
How to play it: Jedibeel WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 10 - 4:40PM RAILWAY HOTEL BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
12. Heuristic was rock-solid in his return at Kensington off a long layoff, and he resumed as a gelding. The three-year-old wasn't suited to the high-pressure 1000m event, and the late market trade suggested he would improve from the run. He ran on hard from the rear of the field, clocking some of the meeting's fastest closing splits, and was strong to/through the line. He gets a favourable setup that fits his profile, and his career peak figure/performance came on a heavy surface over this distance. In addition, he can rate to win, gets in well at the weights after the claim for apprentice Braith Nock and maps to be smothered away, getting an economic run through transit. Good each-way.
Dangers: 15. Anagain is another knockout chance who was mathematically out of the race last start at Rosehill in a similar grade. She got too far back in a farcically run race and ran on hard, recording one of the meeting's fastest final 400m splits. She can settle closer and, with even luck, has the late strength to blow her opposition away. 13. Fleetwood is another Godolphin galloper who resumes as a gelding and has trialled well. His first-up run from last campaign was full of merit and is a key market watch. 6. Cruel Summer revels in the conditions and will roll forward. 5. Starman has been hard to catch, but his SP profile must be respected.
How to play it: Heuristic E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 6 # 4 - Goldman
Next Best: Race 8 # 9 – Tavi Time
Best Value: Race 4 # 9 – Funambulist
