Charles Leclerc has had his fair share of hard luck stories around his home circuit of Monte Carlo. The Ferrari driver woke up as the clear favourite to win the Monaco Grand Prix on the Sunday morning of the race in both 2021 and 2022.
Three years ago, he didn't even make it to his hard-eaned pole position slot as his car broke on the way to the grid.
And two years ago, he was leading the field comfortably on a drying track when his strategy team was caught out by Sergio Perez's transition to slick tyres, eventually coming home a disconsolate fourth as Perez lifted the famous old winners' trophy.
Last season's race saw Leclerc set a Q3 time just one-tenth off Max Verstappen's pole mark, but he was demoted three places to sixth on the grid after being judged to have impeded Lando Norris earlier in the session.
Predictably for the often processional Monaco race, that was where he stayed as Verstappen notched another win.
Verstappen, who has won all but three races since that afternoon on the Cote d'Azur 12 months ago, is once again deservedly odds-on in F1 betting to triumph in his all-conquering Red Bull.
But far from a 1/4 chance as he has been in many races this season, the bookies are offering the champion at 8/11 this weekend.
The loss of confidence is less a result of the recent increased competitiveness at the front - although Norris is indeed breathing new life into Sunday afternoons with a series of terrific drives for McLaren - but the characteristics of this particular street track, at which pole position is absolutely essential.
Verstappen has taken pole at all seven races this year so he will have his backers this weekend, but both McLaren and Ferrari meet the criteria to be in the mix for pole and the win. It's likely to be closer at the front than the odds suggest.
Given Leclerc's one-lap pace, and his record in Q3 at this circuit, he really should be a little shorter than 11/2 to win his first race since the Austrian Grand Prix of 2022.
Bettors who like long-shots might also want to consider a small bet on Lewis Hamilton to take a podium finish at inflated odds of 18/1.
The seven-time champion has endured a miserable 2024 but every runner has its price, and an implied 5% chance doesn't do justice to Hamilton's talents.
He wrestled his Mercedes to fourth at the flag here last year, and with rain in the air this weekend it's not inconceivable we could see the legendary Englishman spraying champagne once again on Sunday afternoon.
