The NBA Finals are back, and one of the world's biggest sporting events finally gets underway on June 2.
The best-of-seven series pits the 2/7 favourites for the Championship, Denver Nuggets, against the 10/3 Miami Heat in what should be an enthralling Finals series between two sides few expected to be here.
The Nuggets have never reached a Finals, let alone won a Championship, in their 47-year history in the NBA. Yet all that has changed in 2023 - they were a level above the rest throughout the Western Conference, finishing top with a 53-29 record.
The Playoffs were not a problem either, as they defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4–1, Phoenix Suns 4–2 and finally swept the LA Lakers 4–0 to land themselves a deserved spot in the Finals.
As brilliant as the Nuggets have been, their status as clear favourites for a maiden Championship comes from the surprise nature of their opponents as much as anything else; the Heat are only the second 8th seed to ever reach a Finals series, the only other coming in 1999 when the New York Knicks were smashed 4-1 by the San Antonio Spurs.
Heat went 44-38 in the regular season, yet despite that they have turned up in the Playoffs and should not be totally written off against the Nuggets, particularly since they have more history in the Finals than their opponents with six appearances and three titles.
The Heat first had to go through the play-in tournament before defeating first seed Milwaukee Bucks 4-1, New York Knicks 4-2 and second seed Boston Celtic 4-3 in the Playoffs to make it to these Finals.
At every step of the way they have been underdogs, and if they want a fourth ring they will have to bear the pressure of being such again against the Nuggets.
If there was any more reason to believe the Nuggets are favourites, they have beaten the Heat twice this season winning 124-119 in Denver and 112-108 in Miami.
With the first two games at home, the Nuggets should be able to go 2-0 up in the series having not lost at home throughout the entire campaign. They have a good record on the road too but Miami will be fired up not to lose the Finals in a whitewash so a score of 3-1 after four games is to be expected, with the Nuggets then taking the Finals 4-1 at home - the odds of that occurring are 13/5, with a Nuggets 4-2 series win priced at 4/1.
If Miami come out firing, that will be down to Jimmy Butler who has been relentless in his search for a first ring. His odds to be Finals MVP are at 17/5 and should be backed if Miami surprise over the first two games, but the favourite is undoubtedly the Nuggets' talismanic and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic at 10/33.
For an outside Finals MVP bet, don't look beyond Nuggets' Jamal Murray - if he emerges from Jokic's shadow in games one and two he could be real value at 8/1.
But Jokic is simply on a record-breaking level others around him are not - he has broken the record most triple-doubles ever in a single Playoff run with eight so far and should be backed to produce one in the opening game of the Finals series at 10/11.
This is Jokic's and the Nuggets' Finals to lose - they have history on the line.
