Defending Premier League champion Michael van Gerwen will need a big performance in Leeds on Night 15 of the 2024 tournament if he wants a shot at defending his title at the play-offs later this month.
MVG (now 6/1 to win the PL title) currently sits fourth in the table following a dramatic drop-off in form since losing in the final of the German Grand Prix to Luke Humphries.
He is just two points ahead of fifth-placed Michael Smith with Rob Cross five points further back, while Nathan Aspinall sits on 25 in third.
That means with two nights remaining Smith (5/4 to make the play-off), Van Gerwen (1/6) and Aspinall (1/6) are in effect battling it out for two spots, with Cross – who has not won a night this year - probably requiring victory in both remaining nights to have any chance.
Mighty Mike faces Gerwyn Price who has endured a torrid Premier League season, struggling to manage the mental pressure the weekly format demands.
That means Van Gerwyn should be a shoe-in for the semi-final, where he would in all likeliness be facing Luke Littler, who plays Peter Wright in the quarter-final.
Littler is already qualified for the play-offs and is competing with Luke Humphries for the number one spot; eight ahead of Humphries, Littler could secure his spot if he reaches the final or if Humphries does not win the night and Littler at least beats Wright.
But Littler's form is electric; he enters the Leeds event with two-night wins in a row while both Van Gerwyn's check-out ratio and average have declined, meaning a shot at a fifth night win could be on the cards for The Nuke, who is now favourite at 6/4 for the PL title.
In the other bracket, Smith vs Aspinall may well be the match of the night with both knowing a night win would go some way to securing their spot in the play-off.
It's a true toss-up. With Aspinall evens and Smith 11/12 to win the match.
Smith has won Players Championship 9 in Hildesheim and will be fired up. He has been steadily improving, and a big finish to the Premier League season would do him wonders for his confidence as he looks to get back to his best – backing him to beat Aspinall and sneak into the top four and his current long odds could be an interesting double bet.
The winner will face one of Humphries or Rob Cross. The former is a well-known Leeds fan and not only will he have the loud First Direct Arena crowd on his side, he will be walking out to a new song (rumoured to be related to Leeds).
That means Humphries will be tough to beat – he was dominant in Germany for the German Grand Prix when he had a crowd that backed him, and he will no doubt be eager to win his 'home' Premier League night.
A Humphries v Smith semi-final could be boisterous as the Leeds fan takes on the St Helen's and Manchester United supporter, with a potential final against Warrington and Red Devil fan Littler no doubt another match the crowd would relish.
Humphries is 3/1 to win the night, with Littler 2/1 and Smith 10/1. 'Cool Hand' remains around 7/4 to win the Premier League, with a final showcase between him and Littler at the O2 seeming increasingly inevitable.
