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Alcaraz primed to take up French Open mantel

The second major of the tennis season gets underway on Sunday, May 26 as the world's best focus on the French Open at Roland-Garros, one of the most iconic tournaments on the international sporting calendar.

Carlos Alcaraz playing in the US Open.
Carlos Alcaraz playing in the US Open. Picture: AAP Image

Rafael Nadal has dominated at the tournament for almost two decades - to the extent that there is a statue of Spain's Raging Bull that stands proudly outside Court Philippe Chatrier. 

Nadal has won a record 14 titles on the hallowed Parisian clay, and has a quite ridiculous career record of 112-3 across 18 appearances at the French Open.

Such levels of dominance are unmatched by any man or woman at any Grand Slam event in the history of the game. However, he is 14/1 to win this year and that's because he looks a shadow of the player who once reigned as the king of clay.

In what is rumoured to be his swansong season, Nadal has yet to reach a final and was last seen being pumped 6-1 6-3 by Hubert Hurkacz at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia. The Mallorcan should line up, but there are noises that he may not even compete if he feels he cannot be competitive. 

Novak Djokovic is another legend whose form is crumbling. He has a 12-5 record for the season and – like Nadal - has not reached a final, let alone won a title.

He must be worried because the GOAT accepted a last-minute wildcard into the Geneva Open – an ATP 250 event that elite players usually swerve the week before a major.

The world number one suffered a shock early exit in Rome and has resorted to drastic measures to get more matches in ahead of the second major of the year.

Nole turned 37 on 22 May and is very much in the winter of his career. We know that Father Time is undefeated so we cannot have him at 3/1 here on the form he has showed so far in 2024. 

That said, every single person in the top four has some sort of form or injury concern going in. 

Tournament betting jolly is Spanish prodigy Carlos Alcaraz, who might have won here last year but for the fact he started to suffer from leg cramps while getting on top in his semi-final against Djokovic. 

Alcaraz is dealing with a forearm injury and as a result has not played two out of the three Masters events going in. There is recent video footage on social media of him training on clay, but he is still wearing a compression sleeve on his right arm and the signs are not great.

Despite this he is a 9/4 favourite to win his first French Open title, with the bookies maybe of the opinion that he still has some time to rest that arm and get it right.

However, Roland-Garros is the most physically taxing Grand Slam, with punishing rallies in hot and humid conditions the norm on the energy-sapping iconic red dirt. 

Jannik Sinner is another brilliant youngster who would have a real shout if he was 100% fit. However, he has been bothered by a hip problem that has kept him out of both the Madrid Masters and the Italian Masters in recent weeks.  

Sinner could be on course to be crowned as world number one for the first time in his career at the end of the French Open, but might well be in the stands or at home watching TV when that happens, rather than on court.

Speaking about his French Open prospects, he said last week, "Roland Garros? We still have to decide a few things for Paris. The preparation will not be optimal. My team and I will do our best to get there with as high a percentage as possible to compete."

World number four Daniil Medvedev has also had some recent injury issues to contend with, and looked awful as he was beaten in straight sets by Tommy Paul (who struggles on clay) in Rome last week. 

Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed a brilliant European clay swing, winning Monte Carlo, but the way he came apart against the unheralded Nicolas Jarry in Rome is a bit of a worry.

At 15/2, however, having done a lot of work to improve a misfiring backhand, he looks an interesting price.

Ditto Andrey Rublev. The Russian is an offensive baseliner with a huge forehand – his signature shot, and he also has a dangerous and consistent two-handed backhand. He favours flat-power over topspin and is one of the most tenacious players on the men's Tour. 

His temperament can be suspect when things are not going his way, but in the last two years he has won two Masters 1000 titles on clay (Madrid this year and Monte Carlo in 2023) and for this reason he looks like an interesting selection at 28/1. 

There are so many intangibles but if Alcaraz arrives even 85% right that might be enough to win this. He is an aggressive baseliner with a rocket of a forehand and is also one of the best movers in the game.

He knows what it takes to win a major and won't be found lacking mentally. If his body holds up, 9/4 about 'Charly' could look a juicy old price in a few weeks.

 

Best Bets

Carlos Alcaraz to win (9/4)

Andrey Rubley to win each-way (28/1)

 


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