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The Melbourne Mail: Caulfield - 26th February 2022

You could make a very strong case that Blue Diamond Day is Caulfield's finest; a wonderful blend of quality and variety gives punters plenty to work with.

LOFTY STRIKE winning the Blue Diamond Prelude-C&G at Caulfield in Australia.
LOFTY STRIKE winning the Blue Diamond Prelude-C&G at Caulfield in Australia. Picture: Racing Photos

 

One of the themes across this year's Blue Diamond card is one of obvious favourites. The day is loaded with them - though not the feature itself which lacks for a standout. 

The betting stumps up for Jacquinot. An eye-catching winner on debut and seemingly an unlucky loser of the Prelude. The winner of the Blue Diamond invariably improves their rating to land the prize but in the case of Jacquinot it will have to be a big spike. 

Artorius was a fairly big spike winning last year and Tagaloa took a similar step forward to the one Jacquinot will need to take if he is going to reach the level that it typically takes to win the Diamond. But that's just it - they are all travelling in a bit low this year and this Diamond does look like being won with a below-average rating. 

The hampsters in their running wheels here at Melbourne Mail HQ have been working overtime to power the supercomputer that comes up with the selections but when it comes to the Diamond we have to concede; Jacquinot looks a good candidate to peak - that seems obvious enough - and a good favourite; but he doesn't make any great betting appeal. 

We press on to the undercard, away from the races 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 and 9 with their obvious favourites and into the third; the Autumn Classic for the three-year-old middle distance hopefuls. 

Here there must be some dispute at the head of betting with that duel currently being fought between Castlereagh Kid and El Patroness.

Here the order of things matters. Castlereagh Kid ran to 102 first up at Gosford, routing a solid enough runner up in flash time. So impressive it was that a few people (me) were walking around saying 'this is a Derby horse' to anyone who would (pretend to) listen. Then Castlereagh Kid went to Sandown and looked far less impressive, his rating dipped as he scrambled in and left those who believe their eyes potentially downgrading him. Had he won at Sandown fresh and Gosford last time things would be different. 

Well, of course, and the market is right to weight slightly to more recent information. But (there is always a but) Sandown was a different test. There he was 34.6 home instead of 36.3. Sandown was a test of speed against a couple of closers who had shown some skill for that. 

Castlereagh Kid wants a battle of strength - a true test - and that is what Caulfield should offer him on Saturday, with a big field around the tigher-turning track. His 102 is good enough to win this race on occasion and he looks sure to prove a bit better than that mark in time - hopefully as soon as this time. 

El Patroness is a worthy rival, rated to match CK off her second to Gunstock around the course in the spring, and her fresh run was fine in a race that was a complete farce; but we make Castlereagh Kid the one most likely and the one that could really turn it on now. Gai and Ollie pops a cherry on top. 

For an each-way play we go to one of the great each-way races - the Oakleigh Plate. 

Marabi is a good favourite, but well enough found, and it gets interesting away from her. 

Minhaaj has gone like a rocket in two for the new stable but the betting doesn't miss her and she hasn't quite got the form to match Wild Ruler who we make the main danger to Marabi. 

The case seems fairly simple. His Moir win rated a bit better than the Manikato where Jonker beat Bella Nipotina and Ingratiating along with Away Game who was 25/1 and well beaten and now turns up inside all of them?? 

Wild Ruler's Moir rating is hardly hanging up there all on its own. He was thereabouts in two first up wins at Rosehill and right there when 4/1 and second to Nature Strip fresh last preparation. 

And he was right there when beating Isotope last April - that one having just beaten Bella Nipotina the run prior and having now proven once and for all (in the eyes of the writer) that she is superior to Away Game. 

It all reads well enough to stamp him second pick and a good each-way play.  

 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 3 #3 Castlereagh Kid @ $3.80

Each Way Play: Race 8 #1 Wild Ruler @ $9.00


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