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2022 AFL Round 22 Preview – MELBOURNE V CARLTON

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.


MELBOURNE V CARLTON

Saturday 13 August @ MCG

Seasons seem to take forever but boy can they turn on their heads in a thrice – that seems to be definitely happening for one of these or potentially both. These were the only two Top 8 teams to lose last week so it's a huge week for them.

Melbourne played in a cracker of a contest, falling as ten others had before to the Pies in another close one. Someone will belt them or be belted by them soon just to cause all sorts of mayhem to conventional thinking.

Contrast that to Carlton who are on a precipice. Giving up that surprise loss to Adelaide, they have consigned themselves to possibly losing their last four.

Clayton Oliver could get leather poisoning
Clayton Oliver could get leather poisoning Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

After the Brisbane game, if they don't knock off Melbourne to be assured, it's Collingwood in the last round on the last day in what could be the last rights. How tasty!

What would annoy the Demons heading into this is that they really should have been up by five goals plus at the main change last week. Their huge amount of forward entries and dominance was not translated onto the scoreboard.

In big games you can't let good teams have a sniff if they don't deserve it. Once Collingwood thought they were a chance they went into the mode that sees them winning EVERY close game.

That forward entry problem doesn't seem to be improving for Melbourne. Tom McDonald has been a loss few could have imagined for the Premiers. He won't win the game for them but his presence allows the others more freedom.

Almost hard to believe Oliver can have 42 and Petracca can have 36 and they lose. Gawn looked the only likely target for a while but his kicking for goal is back to pre-2021 levels.

Forgetting all the Ed Langdon hilarities and what that brought to the contest, they were run down without getting their set up as they like it. Melbourne love to fast break and charge out of the centre circle. More 'Bang, Bang, Bang, Bang' (as James Brayshaw called in the GF) is required.

That midfield group will be struggling not to land the same sort of numbers this week as Carlton is well and truly short on class. Hewett is out for an extended period, Kennedy the same and now Cripps wears his sanction for flying the flag (oh wait – are you joking?).

So Cripps plays hey
So Cripps plays hey Picture: Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images

Gotta love a legal technicality for a footballing judiciary. It sure does elevate the tension.

Even with Cripps back in, it still means there is a lot on Sam Walsh's plate. He has been so solid. Cerra needs to find now that he's further up the food chain. One sees hard tags heading there.

It's weird how a team laden with those high up the Coleman ladder have become impotent so quickly. They so rely on centre and contested ball clearances.

The last quarter comeback seems trite given they lost but it could actually be significant. Had they lost say 10% on the day, that brings St Kilda and the Dogs much closer.

Surely there is too much to be overcome here. Melbourne would have to have a shocker and be inept to not control the midfield. Maybe Voss can come up with some game plan befitting the day. Rain is forecast – could it become a massive scrap?

It could, but logic says the Demons get over the line. A low scoring match seems inevitable.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 16 points

Suggested Bets: SGM – Melbourne win/Under 153.5 points @ $2.55


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