Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
ST KILDA V BRISBANE
Friday 12 August @ Marvel Stadium
With circumstances out of their own hands now both Friday night protagonists just have to get the job done.
Brisbane sit fifth and St Kilda sit ninth and both must hope to win one or both games to make Top 4 in the first instance and Top 8 in the second.
They arrive here coming from differing emotional places. The Saints were right in the game to half time against the Cats but folded. The Lions started like Stylish Century in 1990 Cox Plate and almost ended like Stylish Century did in the 1990 Cox Plate when they got the staggers in a late fright to the Blues.
The turnaround this week is that St Kilda get a final chance back at home while it is Brisbane who has to travel.
To be very fair, the Saints had a dip but were outclassed at Kardinia Park. They didn't succumb early and were there to the main break but even without Selwood, Blicavs and the late out Dangerfield, Geelong had enough in hand to score.
They could keep up their pressure only so long but the forward line broke down and the backline failed to maintain a hold of Hawkins, Cameron et al.
Crouch in the middle and Hill, Sinclair and Ross off half back had plenty of it but without impact of great worth. When they win, it is forward pressure, marking by King and the small forwards crumbing. That needs to be threefold against the best teams.
From the psychological lift that Dan Hannebery gave a week ago in his comeback, the reverse occurred with another setback. Such a potentially sad end for a grand player when in his pomp.
They just have to attempt to pick up the pieces against a team away from home but off the stimulation of a win.
For Brisbane, in the end it read as a 33 point salute. But there were so many twists and surges here. Five goals up was reduced to just two in the second but then a second wave saw Brisbane up by 10 goals. Percentage suddenly became an issue for them both.
After Patrick Cripps flew the flag, Carlton got a sugar hit but the pantomime with the crowd may have inspired Brisbane as much in the end.
Then it turned again as the last quarter began. The Blues nailed 8 goals and with three minutes left, there were some nervous nellies up north. Three late settlers were a tonic though.
The Lions can either take the view how well they played to get to the position of strength or how poorly they once again let a team back into it. Come finals time, no opponent would and should feel a game is out of reach.
Lachie Neale took it upon himself to get them home. 'Not on my watch' seemed the mantra. Zac Bailey getting back into goal kicking touch is so critical because if sides get a hold of Charlie Cameron and/or Joe Daniher when it counts, there isn't much left. They are 'all duck or no dinner'.
St Kilda has played quite decently at Docklands this season with Geelong and Carlton among the vanquished. They have to pull out a similar effort to those this week or the chances likely end.
Those two wins were upsets as they harassed and annoyed two teams with big forward lines. That is the same style they meet on Friday. When the Lions play well they are good – the other side of the coin is a far different story.
Still not convinced Brisbane is capable of being definitive in bringing the heat with regularity. That offers St Kilda a chance but they themselves have to be right atop their game.
Brisbane's outs could end up significant. Adams would take King and Robinson is an inspirer – they won't be there.
Other good news for the Saints is playing first up. They'll know they are still a finals chance and would go into the Top 8 with a win for however long that lasts.
Might either back the Saints and save with more on the start.
Match Selection: St Kilda by 3 points
Suggested Bets: St Kilda win @ $2.50 and/or St Kilda +11.5 @ $1.90
