With a pair of PGA Tour events on the schedule after The Masters last week, most of the world’s top names, including Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, have plumped for the RBC Heritage event in South Carolina.
A 7,191-yard, par 71 awaits – which boasts a middling rank on the PGA Tour's course difficulty rankings – with big names such as Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg ready to duel once again.
Scheffler, who won the Green Jacket for a second time by four shots from Aberg, is on another planet to the rest of the field this season. He has won 33% of the nine events he has played and finished in the top 10 on eight occasions.
The only blemish was a T17 finish at The American Express tournament in January. His last four tournament placings have been first, first, second and first. At 4/1 (each-way 1-5 places) to win another tournament, the odds are short, but still backable.
Statistically he leads the PGA Tour in shots gained (2.812), scoring average (67.60), par fours (3.85), birdie average (5.43), greens hit in regulation (74.55%) and putting average (1.666). A top five finish is priced at Evens and he is 20/1 to win from wire-to-wire – leading after all four rounds.
The incentive is likely to add Scheffler's finishing position into a parlay with others to boost the odds. Scheffler, Schauffele and McIlroy to finish top 10 is 5.54/1, while Scheffler and Aberg to both finish top five is also 5.54/1.
Schauffele (12/1), Aberg (14/1) and McIlroy (14/1) will all be in contention, but the value bets for this one are likely to come from down the field looking at the top 20 or top 40 finisher markets.
Chris Kirk jumps out as a contender in those markets – the American has six top 40 finishes in nine tournaments in 2024 and has the statistical rankings to back with a small wager.
He ranks 25th on the PGA Tour in shots gained (0.854), 13th in scoring average (69.52), second in par fours (3.92) and third in birdie average (4.88). His approach play ranks in the top 30 with a solid putting average as well.
At 5/4 to finish in the top 20, and 30/1 each-way to 1-12 places, both are worthy of a punt if he finds his top form this week.
Tom Hoge is an even larger price at around 45/1 each-way to 1-12 places, a player who boasts the most sub-par rounds on the PGA Tour this season with 34 – one more than Scheffler.
Hoge has two top 10 finishes and six top 20 outings in 11 tournaments and is 19th on the PGA Tour in shots gained (0.955), fifth in scoring average (69.17), 11th in birdie average (4.56), excels on approach and has solid putting metrics.
Many punters like to back a former winner, with options available in the form of Matt Fitzpatrick (25/1), Jordan Spieth (28/1) and Webb SImpson (175/1)..
Best Bets
· Scottie Scheffler to finish top five – Evens
· Chris Kirk to finish Top 20 – 5/4
· Tom Hoge to finish Top 20 – 7/4
