The second event of the FedEx Playoff series, the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club, Illinois, USA, pits the very best golfers against each other for the second week in a row.
American Lucas Glover, who took victory last week at the FedEx St Jude Championship via a playoff hole, is the form man on the tour having won both the PGA tournaments in August. The 43-year-old had just one tour victory from 2011 until a fortnight ago, and he’s enjoying a real purple patch right now.
We backed Glover at 80/1 for the win last week, but it would be difficult to foresee the 2009 US Open winner triumphing in three successive tournaments. The last player to win three consecutive PGA Tour events that they entered was Dustin Johnson in 2007.
However, you have to go back to March 1980 for a player to win three PGA Tour events in succession – Hubert Green won the Doral-Eastern Open, Greater Jacksonville Open and Sean Pines Heritage Classic in a three-week span.
Glover is in from 80/1 to 35/1 to win the BMW Championship and has enjoyed five top-six finishes in the past six tournaments – a missed cut at the 3M Open, despite hitting three-under-par, the only blotch on the copybook.
With the course being on the longer side, a 7,366-yard par 70 with 12 par fours, two par fives and four par threes, it could once again benefit the approach game of Glover whose putting has been excellent in recent weeks. The 12/5 top 10 finish is again a reasonable price as he chases history this week, although the top 20 finish is no longer covered with a dual bet at 3/4.
Patrick Cantley (10/1) is fourth favourite and the two-time defending champion. Cantley won in 2022 by a stroke, in 2021 via a playoff, and finished runner-up in 2019. However, 2020 is the outlier as he finished tied 12 at three-over-par - which was the last time the tournament was played at the Olympia Fields Country Club.
Cantlay was runner-up to Glover at last week’s St Jude Championship and once again should find a course that suites his style – he remains first on the PGA Tour in Total Driving (52), first in Going for the Green (76.71%), first in approaches from 175-200 yards and 100% putting from inside three feet. A small outlay on the win (10/1) may be the option.
Jon Rahm (9/1) is certainly a candidate given his lone BMW Championship victory came on this very course in 2020. He defeated Dustin Johnson in a playoff, with the course proving to be high scoring with the winning mark at four-under-par. The Spaniard hasn’t tasted victory since winning The Masters in April, but his pedigree speaks for itself.
Top 10 finishes at the Mexico Open, US Open and The Open Championship showcase his prowess at the big tournaments, but a tied-37th finish at the St Jude Championship is cause for concern. He leads the tour in Birdie Average (4.62 per round) which certainly goes in his favour. His approach game is excellent, third on the tour in shots gained, which will bode well on the long Illinois course.
If you're looking for a big-name bet, Scottie Scheffler (15/2), Rory McIlroy (15/2) and Viktor Hovland (16/1) are the rest of the main contenders according to the betting.
A longer-priced bet, Taylor Moore (90/1) could be the selection. The American finished fifth at the St Jude Championship. Since a poor run of form saw him miss five cuts out of six, Moore has shown some improvement with tied-22nd at the Wyndham Championship prior to last week’s top-five effort.
His strength is his putting, ranking top 10 on the tour in several categories. He’s a mid-range driver, which may not bode well for the course at the BMW Championship, but does well on par fours. Although he’ll likely not be in the running for victory, a Moore Top-20 finish at 11/8 is worth a look.
