In just two days' time, the East Lake Gold Course will play host to the PGA Tour TOUR Championship, as the current top 30 of the FedEx Cup head to Atlanta to decide the winner.
With two of the FedEx Cup play-offs over and done with, only those 30 remain in with a chance of lifting the trophy and claiming the bumper prize pot that comes with it.
In order to ensure those who have performed well throughout the season have some advantage, the player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into the tournament starts at 10 under par, the second with −8, the third −7, fourth –6 and the fifth at −5. Players ranked 6 through 10 begin at −4; 11 through 15 at −3 and so on until 26 to 30- who start at par.
That means Scottie Scheffler is in the driving seat at East Lake - and the odds reflect that. He is 6/4 favourite with his –10 starting point, which is certainly not a bad price for someone who has a two-stroke advantage over his nearest competitor, the 5/1 Viktor Hovland.
Hovland comes into the tournament in good form - he made 10 birdies and one bogey for a course-record 61 as he won the BMW Championship last weekend ahead of Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick.
It means that the American and Norwegian are probably the 'safest' bets for an outright winner - but backing them for top 5 finishes isn't value enough despite the extra layer of cover. Hovland top five at 4/7 may just about be worth it.
Of the two, however, Scheffler is strongest given that two of the past four TOUR Championship and FedEx Cup winners (the editions which have taken place since the introduction of the starting score system) have started from the leading –10 position.
Those were Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay in 2020 and 2021 respectively. The other two? Well, they were won by a certain Rory McIlroy in 2019 and 2022 when he started on scores of just –5 and –4.
Given he will start the 2023 TOUR Championship third on –7, is a second successive win and fourth FedEx Cup overall on the cards?
Whilst he might not have a major to his name since 2014, the Northern Irishman remains one of the world's most consistently impressive golfers and it feels almost poetic that, even if he can't get over the line in the big ones, he is the greatest in a competition which rewards consistency.
Last year he won with –21, the winning score for the past three years, and he will start this edition three strokes better off than he was last year when he won by one stroke ahead of Scheffler and Im Sung-Jae.
As a result, McIlroy at 7/2 has to be worth a punt- a top five finish is priced at 1/2.
Outside of the top three, it's difficult to see who will emerge as the main contenders- but opportunities should exist for value bets for top five or top 10 finishes.
Jon Rahm, starting on –6, is evens for top five while Patrick Cantlay is at 7/4 to do the same. Im Sung-Jae, runner-up last year, will start on –2 but could rise to finish in the top 10- back him at 12/5 to do so.
