The 2023 Rugby World Cup begins on Friday, September 8 as the top 20 teams in the world fight to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. The final takes place at the Stade de France on Saturday, October 28.
The bookies see the winner coming from the top half of the pool draw with New Zealand (11/4), France (3/1), South Africa (10/3) and Ireland (9/2) all placed in Pool A and Pool B.
Starting with Pool A, it appears to be a two-horse race with New Zealand (10/11) and France (10/11) to win the group – the teams who meet in the opening game of the competition at the Stade de France on Friday, September 8. The winner is a certainty to win the group – and play the runner-up in Pool B, with the loser set to reach the quarter-finals and face the Pool B winners in the last eight.
Italy (66/1), Nambia (1500/1) and Uruguay (1500/1) are expected to be also-rans, with the Italians (33/1) expected to be the likeliest challenger to qualify for the quarter-finals.
Pool B is also considered a forgone conclusion with South Africa (4/5) and Ireland (6/5) the likely pair to win the group and qualify for the quarters. However, Scotland (4/1) are a much shorter price than those in Pool A to make the quarter-finals. Bearing in mind they played France close in two games in August – a 25-21 win at Murrayfield and a 27-30 reverse at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Pool C is the most ‘open group’ with Australia (1/2), Wales (12/5) and Fiji (7/1) in the mix to qualify for the quarter-finals. Fiji are 6/4 to reach the last eight which seems a reasonable bet given they defeated in England in August, while Wales won and lost one against their border rivals and fell 52-16 to South Africa.
England (4/5) and Argentina (Evens) are favoured in Pool D with Japan and Samoa both priced as 40/1 outsiders.
Looking forward to the semi-finals, there are a few bets that could earn consideration. England not to reach the last four is 6/4, which is entirely foreseeable should they face Australia, Wales on Fiji in the last eight.
South Africa are also even money to progress to the last four. Their likeliest opponents would be either New Zealand or France and they demolished the former 35-7 in preparation for the tournament. Equally, France not to make the last four (13/10) plays should they line up against the Springboks.
A New Zealand-South Africa final is 5/1, with the other enticing option a 7/1 pint on a South Africa-Ireland final (7/1). Quarter-final eliminations for England (6/4), France (21/10) and Fiji (21/10) could bring profit.
A hefty wager on a repeat winner of the competition (4/5) should help cover any losses incurred with more intricate bets. Ireland or France would be the options to ruin that punt – France haven’t reached the final since 2011 and Ireland have never reached the final game.
Given the team has games against Nambia and Uruguay in the group stage, France hooker Julien Marchand (40/1) to be the tournament’s top try scorer is a long-odds bet worth a more speculative small wager.
