Timeform Recap the 2016 Bletchingly Stakes won by Lord Of The Sky for trainer Robbie Laing and jockey Damien Oliver.
In our recap of the Sir John Monash Stakes we wrote about the significance of an efficient ride and the story of the 2016 Bletchingly Stakes is a similar one.
Once again it's a story as much about input (tactics) as it is output (horsepower), though that's not to say that the winner, Lord Of The Sky, didn't perform well, posting a Timeform rating of 112 which sits right in line with recent historical trends and also sits in line with his own ratings profile.
A Timeform Rating of 112 is the same figure that Lord Of The Sky posted when winning the 2014 Sir John Monash Stakes, his most recent win prior to Saturday, and is only bettered by his 121-rated second to Chautauqua in the 2015 TJ Smith Stakes.
On Saturday races run from the chute at Caulfield were into a headwind resulting in a lack of early pressure as jockeys looked for cover. In turn that resulted in Lord Of The Sky getting his own way in front and Oliver made them pay running remarkably even splits between the 800m and the 200m - 11.34, 11.35, 11.32 - to put the race to bed.
Runner up Fast 'n' Rocking ran the fastest last 1000m, 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m, but the damage was done. While Lord Of The Sky was playing his hand early Fast 'n' Rocking was happy to sit back, handing him 3.5 lengths in the first 200m, hoping the cards would fall his way. They didn't.
Lord Of The Sky ran the second half of his race 14 lengths faster than the first half, resulting in a finishing speed of 103.3% of his overall race time - a fairly plain overall race time it must be said. Adjusted for the conditions of the day 1:11.62 is a time equal to what would have been expected from a horse rated 87, not a 112-rated Lord Of The Sky.
So in isolation the ride on Lord Of The Sky wasn't particularly efficient. To run a better overall time he should have gone a lot faster early. But these are races not time trials and in the context of the race the ride decided the outcome.
Racing and Sports' Field Strength value (RSFS) shows this to be a fairly strong Bletchingly. The race returned an RSFS of 113.8, the highest in the race since the 2010 edition won by Shoot Out.
The 2010 Bletchingly returned an RSFS of 117.5 and Shoot Out was able to come through that race to win the Liston (now Lawrence) Stakes which is the path that Lord Of The Sky will look to follow.
Shoot Out was the last Bletchingly winner to win the Lawrence. He was able to follow up a 115+ rating in the Bletchingly with a 124 in the Lawrence.
That sort of rating is likely to prove well beyond Lord Of The Sky but the level required to win the Lawrence has fallen dramatically since the upgrade of the Memsie in 2013.
No horse has broken a Timeform rating of 120 in the four years since Shoot Out and that trend doesn't look like changing any time soon, so the Bletchingly form could well stand up there.
The Memsie is likely to prove a bridge too far, though, with recent history showing the idea that the race fit horse can catch the better horses on the hop early in the spring to be a flawed one.
