World Champion Luke Humphries will be eager to maintain the form that helped him reach the final of the UK Open at the weekend on Night Six of the 2024 Premier League Darts season at the Brighton Centre on Thursday.
'Cool Hand Luke' has won just four matches and reached one final through the opening five weeks of the campaign despite leading the tournament in three-dart average at 100.82.
He was jettisoned by Night Five winner Nathan Aspinall 6-5 last week after handling the in-form Michael van Gerwen 6-3 in the quarter-finals. His four wins this season have come over 'MVG', Aspinall, Peter Wright and this week's opening opponent Gerwyn Price.
Humphries bested 'The Iceman' 6-3 in a Night Three semi-final, and the world champion out-averages (100.82-98.06) his opponent, has won more legs (46-33) and won more legs against the throw (17-12) this season. However, the key stat that could keep this match close is the checkout percentage – Price is second in the tournament at 41.25% compared to 'Cool Hand's' 37.70%.
Another factor is the match length, that could sway betting options. Humphries' matches this season have gone an average of 9.88 legs, while Price's have gone 9.25 legs. All told, a Humphries win, coupled with the Most 180s in the contest is in the ballpark at 7/4.
The winner will take on either league leader Van Gerwen in the semi-final or third-placed Rob Cross. 'Mighty Mike' Van Gerwen has endured a disappointing seven days with a quarter-final exit to Humphries on Night Five coupled with a swift defeat in the UK Open to Mensur Suljović.
Much like Humphries-Price, the pair met in a Night Three semi-final, with 'MVG' defeating 'Voltage' 6-4 on his way to a night victory. Van Gerwen leads the league in checkout percentage (45.59%), 180s (38) and 100+ three-dart scores (117).
Cross, who has lost just one quarter-final in five nights, is 10% lower on his checkout percentage and boasts the third-lowest average in the competition, and Cross was beaten in last week's final 6-2 by Aspinall. An interesting titbit is that nine of MVG's 11 matches this season have gone 10 legs or more, opening the over 9.5 legs bet for punters at 10/11.
The bottom half of the draw sees Night Five winner Aspinall take on the prodigy Luke Litter. The 17-year-old is currently second in the league table but has yet to secure a weekly victory. He does, however, boast wins over Humphries twice, Cross, Wright and Michael Smith.
'The Asp', meanwhile, has won five of his last six Premier League matches – with three of those victories coming by –1.5 legs or more. Aspinall and Littler are yet to collide in the competition – but the World Championship runner-up Littler boasts a higher average (100.16-94.76), checkout percentage (38.97%-32.27%) and has posted more 100+ scores (103-58).
A 3/1 Match Treble on Littler – win, most 180s and highest checkout – is a longshot bet that the statistics lend themselves to.
In the final match, Michael Smith takes on Peter Wright. The latter has lost all-five quarter-finals this season, so an 8/15 win for the 'Bully Boy' is likely a strong parlay addition.
Best Bets (Treble 7.25/1)
· Luke Humphries to win and hit most 180s – 7/4
· Michael Van Gerwen – Rob Cross to go 10 or more legs – 10/11
· Michael Smith to beat Peter Wright – 8/15