A handy meeting at Doomben headlined by the Group 3 Pam O’Neill Stakes for fillies and mares.
The main query with Doomben this Saturday is the track condition. Heavy rain nudged the official rating into the heavy 10 category, but that's already improved to a H9 by Thursday and with good weather predicted I'd think we can get down to a S6/7.
Found it tricky to label a best bet (however I do like one at big odds later) and landed with Garibaldi in Race 5. He'll be hoping the track does dry out a bit, however an equal peak rating of 105 on a soft 6 should give us some confidence he'll be okay.
An excellent run first up over an unsuitable 1000m behind the speedy Boomnova, he made some ground without threatening in Group 3 level last time out in a race that suited those on speed. The trifecta sat 5th, 2nd and 3rd, Garibaldi having no hope from a wide gate.
He comes to Doomben which, on paper, looks like it wouldn't suit as well as Eagle Farm, however his record at the track and distance (4:2-1-0) and ratings profile here suggest otherwise, and he looks capable of bouncing back.
If he can run above that 100 mark, which he has (and which the others haven't) done on numerous occasions, he looks the one to beat.
Looking towards the feature race and I'm relatively bullish, or at least as bullish as you can be for a 40-1 shot.
Flandersrain went straight in my R&S Blackbook after her first up run in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes (1300m), closing off in some of the day's fastest splits from a hopeless spot.
That was her first run for a new stable and whilst she started 100-1 and ran a new peak, meaning she could regress, we're getting another big price about her in a scenario that suits much better.
Up to 1600m is ideal, barrier 1 should see her sit much handier as she has done in the past, and her trial in between runs was good. She'll probably need to slightly better her last start effort to win, but given her previous ratings were best at a mile, who's to say she can't?
I will say she'd prefer good ground and seems unlikely to get it, but at 40-1 I'll take the punt she's a better chance than that in a wide-open race.
BRISBANE BEST
Best of the day: Race 5 #1 Garibaldi @ $4.80
Value play: Race 9 #18 Flandersrain @ $41/10
