This weekend's Group 3 San Domenico Stakes is profiling as a race that’s below par, compared to the past 20 renewals.
This is not unexpected — given the juvenile crop of 2013-14 was about three pounds below standard.
Historically recognised as one of the key lead up races for the spring, a measure that this year’s San Domenico fails to reach the heights of previous years is highlighted by its lack of Golden Slipper participants.
Since 1993, 61 gallopers have contested the Golden Slipper prior to running in the San Domenico Stakes —providing 31 per cent of the participants.
However, despite this low participation rate, 12 of the last 20 victors of the San Domenico contested the Golden Slipper in their juvenile season. Only three of the 12 actually placed in the Golden Slipper, Snitzerland ('12), Media ('05) and Charge Forward ('04).
On average, there have been three Golden Slipper participants in the San Domenico — but this season's renewal only sees one galloper — the Chris Waller trained Law
Perhaps trainers are now electing to hold their better three-year-olds back for the spring. This remains to be seen, however the drop in the average Timeform rating is of concern.
In the last 20 years, the average Timeform rating of the participants in the San Domenico has been 108 — this year it’s 106. And the average of Timeform top-rated galloper in the San Domenico Stakes has been 119 — this year it’s 112.
In 2004, we saw Charge Forward, Fastnet Rock, Dance Hero and Savabeel dual in this event. There doesn't appear to be horses of this calibre going around on Saturday.
This lack of depth is also represented in the futures markets for the Group 1 Golden Rose. Only one galloper in Saturday's field is priced less than 35-1 to win the spring feature (Ygritte).
Two gallopers have competed in the San Domenico prior to winning the Golden Rose, Court Command in 2004 and Duporth in 2008 — the latter remains the only horse to complete the elusive double.
With two successes, the record of San Domenico participants in the Golden Rose is fair.
In the last 20 years, only 27 runners have contested the San Domenico, prior to lining up in the Golden Rose. In total they have provided 10 per cent of the participants — for 10 per cent of the victors.
It is interesting to note that only four winners of the San Domenico Stakes have actually pressed on to the Golden Rose (Foxwedge '11, Shellscrape '09, Duporth '08 and Gold Edition '06).
Based on this empirical analysis, we are unlikely to see the Golden Rose winner line up at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
