Bayern Munich are marginal favourites to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday (2000 BST), but we think their growing injury list hands Los Blancos the advantage,
Bayern Munich are favourites to seize the initiative in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final with Real Madrid but we're not convinced the Bavarians are worth backing.
Thomas Tuchel's press conference will help to clear up the German side's injury crisis but at the time of writing, Bayern look desperately short in key areas.
Matthijs De Ligt and Konrad Laimer limped off at the weekend, forcing 19-year-old Aleksandar Pavlolic into midfield and prompting a reshuffle at the back.
Tuchel's midfield will need to be combative so Joshua Kimmich is an option, but that would mean a reshuffle at right-back and left-back.
An even bigger issue is the lack of attacking depth available. Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman and Jamal Musiala could all miss out, making Mathys Tel and Raphael Geurreiro potential starters.
On the other hand, Real Madrid will be without their choice on both sides of defence, but Lucas Vazquez and Ferland Mendy are capable deputies.
Jude Bellingham is expected to take his place in midfield and he'll look to play off of the inexperienced Pavlovic where possible, creating an issue for the Germans.
The England midfielder has started to weigh in with goals in big games recently and has contributed four goals and four assists in eight Champions League ties.
Bayern's midfield doesn't look equipped to handle his powerful runs from deep so we'll gladly take a punt on him scoring on Tuesday.
Los Blancos have dominated this competition over the years and their handling of Manchester City in the previous round exemplified why.
Carlo Ancelotti's side visits the Allianz Arena on the back of a 40-match unbeaten run in 90 minutes so it's hard to bet against them.
Team news
Tarek Buchmann, Bouna Sarr, Sacha Boey, Dayot Upamecano, Coman, Gnabry and Sane are ruled out for Bayern Munich.
De Ligt, Laimer and Musiala are at risk of joining them on the sidelines.
Bundesliga top-scorer Harry Kane will look to add to his 53-goal involvements in all competitions.
Jude Bellingham is expected to be fit enough to start but Real will be without Thibaut Courtois, Dani Carvajal and David Alaba.
In better news, Aurelien Tchouameni is available again, but Federico Valverde, Toni Kroos and Eduardo Camavinga are likely to be preferred in midfield.
Key stats
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in seven Champions League meetings with Bayern
- Bayern Munich could be without four of their five first-choice wide players
- Bayern Munich have won their last four matches in all competitions
- Inside 90 minutes, Real Madrid are unbeaten in 40 matches across all competitions
Suggested bets
Real Madrid: Draw no bet
Jude Bellingham to score
Under 2.5 goals
